Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already lacking a bullish excuse to further delay resuming the rally, Sunday night’s dip was exacerbated Monday to fully retest the 1.1333 original buy signal to attack 1.1320. The buy signal’s minimum objective was met already, but holding its test on this pullback may allow another buy signal to form.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s dip fulfilled the likelihood for extending to another fresh low before being able to signal momentum reversing up. Monday’s open under the likely 1290.00 support extended down to 1284.00 to allow a close back above 1290.00 to signal a bottom is forming.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The most bullish path lower would have bounced first Sunday night or Monday before probing fresh lows, but fresh lows were already being probed at Monday’s open and the 15.10 objective was met and held. Back above 15.40 would signal the trend reversing back up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only a little further weakness was required Sunday night to fulfill the retest of prior lows at 143-22. That was greeted by a catalyst for rallying in a “flight-to-safety” as the stock market’s gap up reversed into a collapse Monday morning. But its high held the prior pattern’s 144-14 low as resistance, which does not qualify as reversing momentum up.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming into Monday was capable of resuming the rally, but not yet assured since Friday’s low had filled the outstanding gap below only nominally. An early test of the 57.00 buy signal held as the session only ranged sideways.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher Sunday night was erased before Monday’s open, and the session only ranged narrowly. The pattern can’t tolerate any delay to resuming the rally at this stage of the setup if upside momentum remains intact.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday still had not resumed the rally, despite Thursday’s pre-open warning short and not yettrying to probe lower. The rally isn’t required to extend, already having fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum objective, but any fresh high above 1.1425 would be credible for extending higher.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s return to the 1317.00 original buy signal found only obligatory support before extending overnight to gap down Friday to 1307.50 prior lows and extend lower intraday to 1297.00. An immediate reversal up is unlikely, but any hesitation that appears to be bottoming would be credible for launching a recovery.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednedsay’s return to the original 15.75 buy signal did not prevent Thursday’s break lower, and Thursday’s attack on the two-week old opening gap down at 15.60 didn’t satisfy selling pressure. Extending lower overnight gapped down Friday under 15.55 and extended sharply lower to probe under 15.25. No immediate recovery is likely without first forming a bottom over 2-3 sessions.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Breaking under the pattern’s last relative low at 145-16 Wednesday had confirmed momentum reversing down, which quickly fulfilled its minimum target of retracing the entire pattern’s 145-00 low. Neutralizing its attraction Thursday didn’t prevent gapping down Friday to attack the next objective at 144-08 to within a quarter-point, albeit unlikely to hold as support.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing last Friday’s high overnight to attack 57.90 was retraced to open flat Friday, and firmed only briefly before reversing down sharply. The low filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 55.60 close, but only hovered there instead of rejecting it or breaking lower. Stopping pessimistically short of thoroughly testing the gap does suggest it will be probed before a recovery can be credible.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was absorbed and the rally was free to resume without further delay, which it did Friday by extending to a fresh high. Trending intraday to fresh extremes on Fridays in this product tends to extend coming out of the weekend.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not at all prohibited from resuming the rally, Thursday’s open was greeted by strength to a fresh highs. But it disappeared quickly as the balance of the session hovered in negative territory. Any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Pulling back to “lower prior highs” proved insufficient to launch a recovery, as Thursday dipped even deeper to 1314.50. The 1327.50 buy signal remains unchanged, although its test becomes likelier.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows Thursday don’t enable lowering the buy signal, but the pattern should include a bounce back up to 15.80 regardless of whether its resistance will hold.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reversal wasn’t rejected overnight as Thursday slid through 145-16 to test the 145-00 last relative low. The intraday lower low doesn’t yet qualify as a minimum probe of the prior low, and a buy signal is unlikely to develop soon in this pattern.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Thursday didn’t exploit Wednesday’s hesitation at the gap-fill, further suggesting the pattern would resolve up.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength enabled recovering after the gap up had reacted down. But the rally has yet improved.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having just fulfilled its minimum third higher close to satisfy last week’s confirmed breakout, another session of backing-and-filling Wednesday would not necessarily undermine the rally. But the bullish pattern shouldn’t further delay fresh highs Thursday and preferably also into the weekend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The reaction down from meeting last week’s target extended even deeper Wednesday, filling a gap at 1323.00 and testing “lower prior highs” at 1318.50. A new buy signal can be calculated at 1326.50 that would target 1345.00-1347.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows at 15.65 now allow a close back above 15.80 to trigger a rally leg targeting 16.16. Another lower close to the current pullback would be difficult to launch a near-term recovery.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s probe back above the 146-12 buy signal had closed at its intraday upper-end, leaving no room for delay to extending higher for a bullish resolution. Reacting down instead Wednesday was vulnerable to rejecting the larger recovery attempt, and price extended down sharply to attack 145-18. Almost any lower close Thursday would shift the pattern to distributive and the trend to down.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s post-close reaction to API had spiked up to touch the 56.15 buy signal. Already firming before Wednesday’s open, the morning’s reaction to its EIA report extended the recovery to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 57.25 high close, still having no reason to further delay resuming the rally to new highs.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s gap down dipped to 2.73 filled the gap back to Friday’s close and reversed back into positive territory at 2.80. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still firming Tuesday since completing its pullback, but with restrained optimism that suggests a break higher could almost literally explode to the upside.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Backing-and-filling persisted Tuesday, still hovering at or under its 1328.50-1333.00 pullback limit and likely to resolve up and test unfinished business above.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s pullback low held the 15.80 “lower prior highs” whose recovery had confirmed the prior upleg and target in-play. This pullback has no time limit, but there is no lower requirement and no reason to further delay launching a credible rally.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping right back up to the 146-12 buy signal Tuesday extended higher without delay to retest Friday’s high up to 146-27. And unlike Friday’s prior test, indicated to end the day at the upper-end of its range rather than lower. Interim dips have probed relevant support without attracting reinforcements or otherwise confirming their reversal attempts. Repeatedly recovering suggests the pattern still intends to resolve in a new upleg above 147-00.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s extended pullback had probed under the 55.85-56.05 pullback limit. Not confirming with a second consecutive lower close helps to suggest the reaction was only temporary. Closing back above 56.10 as soon as Tuesday remains entirely credible for resuming the rally to fresh recovery highs.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Apr which trades at a 4-cent discount to Mar]… Gapping up Tuesday began retracing immediately, leaving it to a positive close either to fulfill an already confirmed breakout, or else to confirm a borderline breakout and require another positive close to fulfill it.