Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s spike low in reaction to Payrolls was retested immediately by Monday’s gap down, but not extended — certainly not on a closing basis — which would trigger a much deeper reversal down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two consecutive sessions of only overlapping the 1218.00 buy signal didn’t prevent trending up Sunday night or gapping up Monday morning. The breakout from a multi-session range would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Tuesday, targeting 1235.00 and potentially 1259.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday to test 17.63 resistance was extended higher intraday to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s 17.71 open. Extending higher through Tuesday’s close would target 18.18, and potentially also 18.70.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bearish, distributive sealed top had already extended its bounce from Jan 3’s obligatory support. Friday’s failed bounce didn’t extend down any deeper, nor did it prevent gapping up Monday to test the 151-11 extreme bounce limit. Immediately reacting back down under 150-24 may be the only near-term path lower.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Sunday night was barely recognized by Monday’s open. Reversing back down into negative territory hasn’t invalidated potential for extending to 55.25, but any further reaction down would start to suggest 54.25 resistance has held.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday to a fresh low at 3.00 didn’t extend down any deeper to the lower objective outstanding at 2.91. Rather, a bounce filled the gap back up to Friday’s 3.06 close. That attraction above is neutralized, so the decline should resume and be productive by Tuesday afternoon.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report initially dipped to touch the 1.0725 sell signal. Its reaction back up into positive territory above 1.0810 has formed a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern that would be triggered back under 1.0740.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report only neutralized attractions below, testing the 1212.00 pullback limit, while nearly filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1207.50 close. Bouncing back above 1218.00 makes fresh highs likely at 1235.00 and potentially also 1259.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday morning’s knee-jerk reaction down on the Employment Situation report touched lower prior highs near 17.25, and bounced back to unchanged. A retest of Thursday’s 17.70 gap open must be probed to put into play 18.18.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the 151-11 bounce limit to within 2 ticks after Friday morning’s Employment Situation report was reversed back down into negative territory, testing 150-00 and presumably resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing back up to 54.25 held again Friday, but wasn’t rejected, making fresh highs also likely to test 55.25. But only closing back under 53.50 would suggest momentum reversing down instead, targeting 49.05 and 47.80.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s bounce in reaction to the EIA report had still stopped short of signaling the decline’s momentum was lapsing. Trending back down overnight gapped down Friday to test 3.04, still targeting 2.91.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday must close higher to make fresh highs likely Friday. There is otherwise a vulnerability to reversing back down into the weekend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gaping up to fresh highs at 1227.50 was reversed back down to test the 1218.00 buy signal Thursday as support. Regardless of its resolution, the gap up will want to be revisited.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday through 17.63 was retraced to almost fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s close. Regardless of the pattern’s resolution, the gap up will want to be revisited.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up to test the 151-11 maximum bounce limit Thursday was retraced to almost fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s 150-14 close. The decline has no excuse not to resume into the weekend, unless it isn’t going to resume, at all.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s close above 53.50 was extended Thursday morning to test 54.25 resistance. Its reaction down is trying to hold 53.50, whose break through the close would essentially reverse momentum back down.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Thursday to Tuesday’s 3.12 close was reversed back up in reaction to the EIA report. Its complete retracement is not bearish, but neither does it yet qualify for completing a bottom.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap up to prior highs that closed higher needed confirmation from a second consecutive higher close. Gapping down Wednesday didn’t make that likely. Tuesday’s close above prior highs at 1.0815 still represents a gap wanting to be filled, and likely to be filled, until rejecting it by closing under a prior low like 1.0750.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s dip back under the 1206.50 sell signal by almost $7 avoided producing a new downleg, since it was recovered through the close. Closing back above Tuesday’s 1218.00 high would target 1235.00 and potentially also 1259.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s test of the 17.63 objective and its fulfillment of a fresh recovery high close, was not extended Wednesday. This doesn’t equate to rejecting it, and a higher close Thursday would still have room up to 18.18 or 18.72.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the corrective bounce Monday and Tuesday to 151-05 did not change whether it was only a correction. Sliding Wednesday morning back under Monday’s low to 149-23 greeted the FOMC Minutes with downside momentum, and after having expended a lot of buying pressure without gaining any traction for the effort.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Weak reactions to production and inventory reports offered another opportunity to resume the decline, which Tuesday’s open had otherwise isolated to Monday night. The session held a test of the 53.50 buy signal.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already having fulfilled the 3.12 objective Tuesday, closing back above 3.15-3.20 could signal the decline’s momentum has lapsed. Probing it overnight was nevertheless reversed by Wednesday’s open, and not recovered again.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s test of the 1.0750 bounce limit was reversed to gap down under prior lows Monday and test 1.0640. .Despite only filling the gap back up to Friday’s 1.0715 close and neutralizing its attraction above, an overnight rally gapped up and extended to fresh highs attacking 1.0825. Regardless of its catalyst, a second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would confirm a much larger rally underway. So, retesting Monday’s low requires reversing down Wednesday.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Recovering 1198.00 (basis Apr, 1195.00 basis Feb) overnight extended higher Tuesday to fill the gap back up to 1212.00 (basis Apr, 1209.00 basis Feb). Closing Wednesday above 1215.50 would target 1233.50 and potentially 1257.00. Back under 1203.00 would instead signal a corrective bounce had ended, and a new downleg is likely underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Chipping away at resistance Monday was rewarded by Tuesday’s gap up, test of the 17.63 objective, and fulfillment of the outstanding third higher close. Extending any higher would next target 18.71.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Renewed weakness and stocks may be as responsible Tuesday as it was Monday for avoiding the decline’s resumption. The reaction was greater, bouncing nearly 1 point up to 151-06. Regardless of its catalyst, the delay should end soon with FOMC due Wednesday.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing fresh lows overnight down to the ultimate 52.25 sell signal was reversed before the open, which gapped up and extended higher to test 53.55. Closing under the original 53.25 sell signal keeps alive the distributive pattern, but its recovery would likely test at least 54.25.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s open gapped down to 3.12 to immediately fill the last nearby gap outstanding below. Closing back above 3.25 would start to signal the drop had ended.