Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s initial blip-up was reversed down through the day. A pullback still has room down to 1.0505-1.0525 and then lower to the 1.0450 area where a more substantial rally leg can be launched, or else a new downleg can begin.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Immediately breaking under the 1180.50 sell signal Friday was initially retraced from testing 1172.00, which was retested into the close with potential for extending down to the 1160.00 area.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s decline to 16.40 leaves no “unfinished business above” while still having room below at 16.15, simply as a correction.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight tests of the 152-30 objective were followed by a knee-jerk reaction up to 153-09 on Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. Its reaction down extended through the day to within 4 ticks of its 151-15 objective.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s choppiness ultimately finished slightly higher, maintaining potential for filling the gap at Tuesday’s 54.80 gap up before a more durable downleg can begin.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s test of the 3.18 target held for a second consecutive session. Any early strength above 3.40 would be likely to extend in that direction intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s open gapped up to the 1.0505-1.0520 bounce limit and extended through Friday’s 1.0615 prior high. Closing higher would target 1.0755, and potentially higher, regardless of the recent low’s range requiring a retest as support.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not already reacting down Thursday from Wednesday’s test of 1167.00 was instead likelier to extend the rally. Gapping up to 1174.00 extended higher through the morning to fulfill the next higher objective at 1184.20. Closing back under 1180.50 would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s sub-optimal confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout didn’t prevent extending higher Thursday to test 16.75. Not already extending higher at Friday’s open would be vulnerable to correcting back down under 16.20.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down sharply from an overnight test of the 151-12 target didn’t prevent another test intraday, or extending that test sharply higher to 152-22. Its 152-02 pullback limit must break to suggest the surge wouldn’t be confirmed, and back under 151-24 would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, the rally could extend to test 152-26.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and extending higher through 53.45 “higher prior lows” and filling the gap back up to Friday’s 53.70 close was nevertheless reversed back down from 54.10 to 52.80 by Thursday morning’s EIA release. That didn’t reverse momentum down, as 53.70 was recovered. But 54.25 wasn’t recovered, which would have targeted filling the gap back to Tuesday’s 54.80 gap up.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA release wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, which would have doomed an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Regardless of its path, the resolution was down, fulfilling the 3.19 target which held while RSIs diverged positively, A bottom is free to form.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday helps to validate Tuesday’s post-open recovery, but that’s not an appropriate launch of an upleg. A little backing-and-filling from 1.0505-1.0520 is likelier than extending higher durably.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs were probed already before Wednesday’s open, fulfilling the 1167.00 target up to 1168.60. Being the fourth day of a 4th-day sequence, a fresh high close was unlikely. The close was within Tuesday’s range, but didn’t necessarily reject Wednesday’s gain, so not reversing down at Thursday’s open could extend the rally instead.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s surge to 16.55 was maintained throughout Wednesday. Although not extended, Tuesday’s breakout wasn’t confirmed.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday morning’s recovery had stopped pessimistically short of touching Friday’s 150-24 high. It was touched late Wednesday morning and later pierced by 2 ticks, still targeting 151-12.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday morning eventually firmed up to 54.20 resistance, with room for testing “higher prior lows” up to 54.55 before becoming vulnerable to another downdraft. EIA reports this week on Thursday.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength. Wednesday morning returned back down to Tuesday’s 3.27 lows and then probed a couple of points lower, all but confirming Tuesday’s breakout and requiring at least an eventual lower close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s break higher was weak confirmation to Thursday’s weak breakout attempt. But extending higher would have been credible. Or simply dipping to test recent “lower prior highs.” All of which is now much higher after Tuesday morning’s plunge back to recent lows. There was no bullish reason to fill the gap back down to 1.0435 that had been filled already. The gap fill held, so rallying sharply is the only bullish scenario now. Delaying a recovery is not strength.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday morning’s surge attacked the 1167.00 target already to within $1. There is no requirement to extend any higher, and back under 1154.50 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing sharply at Tuesday’s open helped to leverage Friday’s late bounce. The reaction down from testing 16.20 has avoided gaining traction. Closing above 16.20 signals a new rally leg underway, which already extended to a fresh high Tuesday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down sharply to 149-04 was recovered to fill the gap back up to Friday’s test of 150-24, still targeting 151-12 if sellers are gaining traction for their efforts.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying sharply overnight neutralized all “unfinished business above,” stopping 6 cents short of the three-week old 56.24 Sunday night high. Not immediately, but soon, price tumbled sharply to 53.18 where the price had based previously. There’s no bullish reason to revisit it after already probing higher, but back above 54.20 would trigger a retest of Tuesday’s highs.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction down from probing above 3.75 had retraced Thursday, and broken lower Friday. Its minimum 3.62.objective was met overnight, and then broken on the way to recent pullback lows around 3.30. That’s also a prior low, and any lower would target 3.18.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Whatever triggered Thursday night’s flash-surge vs. the Dollar, it was exacerbated by having bottomed and triggered a buy signal Wednesday and Thursday. A second consecutive higher close Friday is dubious confirmation. It would have been highly suspicious for post-open action only to trend down, but post-open action first probed higher — short of the 1.0635 overnight high — before dipping back under the open. Regardless, a deeper corrective dip ack to 1.0525-1.0535 is possible before resuming the breakout.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow ranging Friday morning didn’t exploit Thursday’s breakout surge. Dipping deeper through the session only attacked 1149.40 whose break — confirmed under 1142.50 — would reinstate 1118.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s test of the 16.20 buy signal was ongoing into and out of the close and Friday’s open. It was rejected back down under the 16.00 “lower prior highs” to 15.88. A fresh low isn’t required, but would still be possible, and would still likely recover.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Friday above Thursday’s highs — which had been retraced to the 149-24 buy signal — attacked the 151-12 target to 150-24. The target remains in-play so long as 149-24 holds as support. Back under 149-18 would reverse the trend back down, sharply.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
More shallow weakness Friday morning still didn’t reverse momentum down, but it did start to undermine the recovery’s pace. Resuming the rally should have been obvious before the weekend, so surging out of the weekend may be the only near-term remaining bullish scenario.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s dip back down to 3.75 was in-line with Wednesday’s break above it having been exacerbated by the rollover. But breaking under 3.75 confirms. And closing under the break’s 3.62 would reverse the trend down.