Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down Tuesday can confirm Monday’s break from the failed Ascending Triangle, targeting 1.1010 and potentially 1.0965, so long as the rally’s 1.1100 is not recovered. Having originated from a failed Ascending Triangle, a complete recovery would be likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially bouncing Tuesday to 1291.50 didn’t prevent retesting the 1284.00 pullback limit that was already broken through Monday’s close, and even deeper to attack 1273.00. Closing back above 1286.00 would undermine the selling pressure, but momentum reversing up requires a close back above 1291.50

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly extended sharply higher Tuesday morning, filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s high close.Closing above prior lows keeps alive the upside momentum.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Finally breaking under the 162-16 sell signal Tuesday morning extended down to attack the 161-22 prior lows that had formed only a temporary bottom, still targeting fresh lows at 160-10.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Only firming slightly Tuesday suggests that the decline is not rejected and a new low will be in-play. But calculating the next lower target’s objective requires a corrective bounce to develop, targeting 45.70 or 48.25, perhaps in reaction to Tuesday’s post-close APA report and/or Wednesday’s EIA report.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not even threatening to recover 2.88-2.91 Monday has resolved by gapping down again Tuesday to fresh lows testing 2.74. No scenario Wednesday would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging around the 1.1100 target had never broken higher, but an Ascending Triangle had formed through Friday, thanks to its inside day. Nevertheless, gapping down under the range’s low Monday and extending down intraday signals a reversal targeting 1.1000 and potentially also 1.0965. It’s likely only a temporary corrective leg since it had originated from a failed Ascending Triangle.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Monday extended to actually test the 1284.00 pullback limit that was narrowly avoided at Thursday’s open. Regardless, Friday was the opportunity to reject Thursday’s intraday recovery, so Monday’s dip should prove to be only a retest of the pullback low. Otherwise, confirming the break would target at leas 1266.00 and probably 1252.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back down Sunday night extended lower Monday morning to attack or test the 18.05 pullback limit which had held Thursday’s gap down. It’s probably too late to confirm the original break since it wasn’t rejected immediately Friday.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Monday back under the 163-02 bounce limit has no more traction than the probes above it — until closing under 162-16. Regardless, extending down would be in-line with expectations to better form a bottom by probing under it again, probably to 160-10.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having bounced early Friday from the decline’s 43.75 target, opening firmer or gapping up Monday was free to extend higher. So, the session’s restrained optimism does suggest that actually rallying could be very productive, regardless of its vulnerability to the decline eventually extending.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Monday was not the rejection of Wednesday’s gap down that would launch a credible recovery. Closing above 2.88 and 2.91 remain the minimum requirement to being signaling the decline has ended and that momentum may be reversing up.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s return into Wednesday’s range prevented forming an Island Reversal. Still hovering at Wednesday’s upper-end Friday may prevent reversing back under 1.1100 before extending up to 1.1195. But closing back under 1.1100 would still suggest the bounce had ended already.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow fluctuation Friday kept alive the potential for producing the minimum requirement for a third higher close before any deeper pullback.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s pullback low wasn’t retested or attacked Friday, despite initial weakness, suggesting that the attraction to a new relative high close remains intact and in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s choppy open was again attracted back to 163-02, which again bounced to attack 163-27 resistance. A bigger bounce remains unlikely, although closing above 164-08 would suggest something more substantial to the upside is underway. Otherwise, back under 162-16 would likely trigger a break to fresh lows targeting 160-10.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The downleg that triggered under 50.80 got off to a slow and shallow start. Its decline contained a shallow consolidation. And it has extended to fulfill its 43.75 target. Already fulfilling the objective suggests that a corrective bounce will resolve in an even lower low, and probably not just hold a retest of 43.75.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrow range at recent lows doesn’t reject their break, but it maintains the potential for closing Monday above 2.88.to end the decline’s momentum or above 3.00 to reverse the trend back up.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday back under Tuesday’s highs could have formed an Island of Wednesday’s probe above the 1.1100 target. But Thursday’s post-open bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close and probed back into Wednesday’s range. There is now no “unfinished business above” to ensure a recovery if a decline were to begin.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tumbling overnight exploited almost all the room below for a pullback attacking 1283.50-1286.00. Thursday’s gap down had already begun recovering, and the morning;s bounce extended back above 1300.00. An eventual third higher close is in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dropping sharply overnight to test its 18.05 pullback limit was reversed back up Thursday. An eventual third higher close is in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing to and through the 163-02 bounce limit over two days has led to the third day gapping back down under 163-02. While the bottoming attempt around 161-22 is probably not complete, Friday’s Employment Situation report isn’t necessarily being greeted from a position of weakness — reacting down to fresh lows and then closing higher would seal a bottom, especially if the fresh lows had visited 160-10.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting up to 45.70 resistance Thursday was reversed back down to fresh lows under 45.00. The decline’s ultimate 43.75 objective would be lowered if met by the current uncorrected downleg.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength. But its reaction was muted, and not necessarily any more bearish than already being at fresh lows. Closing back above 2.88 would be the earliest signal of a bottom forming.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday extended through the 1.1100 target, which must now hold as support  to maintain the upside momentum.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up extended through the 1304.00 target for a second consecutive higher close confirming Tuesday’s breakout. At least an eventual third higher close is now required.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up trended higher intraday, and produced a second consecutive higher close confirming Tuesday’s breakout. At least an eventual third higher close is now required..

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight to gap up Wednesday morning above the 163-02 bounce limit was retraced almost immediately to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Another rally intraday attacked the overnight highs, and “higher prior lows” at 163-27. All of which developed prior to the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Breaking sharply lower again Wednesday probed under the 45.70 target. Already extending down to the ultimate 43.25 target is difficult after trending so far so recently. But it is likely so long as 45.70 holds as resistance.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s fresh low had fulfilled the decline’s structural objective, to its 2.87 calculable objective, and price reacted up from there intraday. None of which prevented Wednesday’s gap down under prior lows. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, other than for the potential of forming an Island reversal pattern.