Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to fresh lows Tuesday suggests that the ongoing distributive pattern is finally maximizing its influence, after weeks of choppy flat-to-lower ranging that hasn’t yet put together two consecutive lower closes under a support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s unimpressive gap up and ranging was retraced only shallowly Tuesday, barely filling its gap back to Friday’s 1255.70 close. The impatient buying suggests that a deeper dip is needed to form a better bounce.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping shallowly Tuesday stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Friday’s 17.41 close. The impatient buying suggests that a deeper dip is needed to form a better bounce.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Monday under 165-02 had maintained the downtrend’s momentum, at least preventing a buy signal. Perhaps the plunging stock market created a flight-to-safety that eventually produced a bounce up to 164-22, but the nearest signal at this stage of momentum reversing up would be above 165-18.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight highs held the 51.50 target that had been tested Monday morning by a dime, and then already retested Monday afternoon. Breaking under the 50.80 pullback limit Tuesday now requires its immediate recovery Wednesday to maintain potential for extending this leg to 54.60. Two consecutive lower closes under 50.80would instead signal at least a deeper pullback underway.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing a Monday’s high overnight up to 2.31 allowed room for a deeper pullback down to 2.14 before reversing momentum down. But holding 2.20 would at least maintain the upward momentum.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday without Friday’s range extended down intraday to attack Friday’s lows. The inside day must be rejected without delay Tuesday to avoid extending the decline much more obviously.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap up only ranged narrowly within Friday’s range instead of extending higher above 1266.00, and instead of filling the gap back down to Friday’s 1255.70 close. The timing is still appropriate for some sort of rally, be it a temporary correction or a durable recovery. But even the most bullish scenario can’t dismiss the potential for one more probe of fresh lows.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday didn’t extend before settling into a narrow range around Friday’s 17.69 high. The gap back down to Friday’s 17.41 close should be filled before a recovery would be credible — preferably by probing a fresh low intraday and then recovering to close in positive territory.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not recovering 165-30 Friday and only overlapping 165-02 made the decline likely to extend down Monday, which it did, probing fresh lows down to 163-21. Closing under 164-08 makes the decline likely to extend further.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s brief dip attacked the 49.00 pullback limit to within 15 cents before recovering to indicate a gap up Monday. The 51.50 target was probed by a dime before reacting down temporarily. The pullback limit has been raised to 50.80, which would maintain the next potential objective at 54.60.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday extended higher to fulfill its 3.28 target Monday morning. Its reaction down to 3.24 was largely recovered. But RSIs diverged negatively, suggesting that a pullback or consolidation of some sort may now begin. The rally will be able to resume so long as 3.20 holds as support.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking down to fresh lows Friday and then snapping back up only tested what had been “higher prior lows” of the consolidation that previously had launched three separate breaks lower. Its third break finally had been maintained through a close on Thursday, and although not confirmed by a lower second consecutive lower close, the break was not rejected and remains intact.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing only to 1166.00 resistance was reversed sharply back down to fresh lows, essentially testing the upper-end of the next lower objective’s 1237.00-1243.00 range.  Closing back above Thursday’s 1252.50 lows isn’t enough to prevent follow-through on Monday.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially bouncing Friday morning proved short-lived, although the eventual reaction down held above prior lows. The potential to 17.09 that was attacked to within a nickel Thursday was attacked to within 2 cents Friday. Back above 17.80 would put the potential to the upside in a recovery

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fulfilling all downside attractions without actually closing above the 165-30 relevant level still didn’t greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. The result was to probe back under prior lows down to 164-08. And not closing above 165-30 suggests that Monday will probe fresh lows, too.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s fresh high testing 50.75 was already softening when it then reacted down to the weekly Rig Count. The dip to 49/40 didn’t much threaten the 49.00 pullback limit, still targeting 51.50.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The week’s restrained optimism finally became a little unleashed by gapping up Friday and probing fresh recovery highs at 3.22. 3.12-3.15 3.28.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Two failed attempts to actually reverse deep gaps down — instead of only retracing them — were followed Thursday by a third gap down Thursday. This time without any retracement, while producing the lowest close in a week, and presumably (again) starting the next downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Wednesday having held a test of the next lower target at 1166.00, Thursday probed under the next lower objective at 1254.50. Reversing almost any initial weakness back up into positive territory Friday would be vulnerable to a short-squeeze into the weekend.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending down Thursday next targeted 17.09, which was tested to within 20 cents at the intraday low. No setup is capable of signaling momentum reversing up Friday, not durably, although probing fresh lows early Friday would be extremely vulnerable to a short-squeeze into the weekend.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Thursday filled the 3-week old gap down to 165-02 that had been filled previously only overnight. That had been sufficient to launch a rally up to 170-04, but the retest would have been more bullish if Friday’s Employment Situation report were greeted from closing Thursday above 165-30.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The rally extended higher Thursday to test 50.50, likely to extend to 51.50 and potentially also to 54.65 so long as pullbacks now hold 49.00.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight to 3.07 didn’t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction to Thursday morning’s EIA report. But its dip to 2.97 was recovered almost entirely back to the overnight high. Pullbacks must hold 3.04 to maintain the rally’s momentum.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Similar to the follow-through from Friday’s gap down and intraday recovery, the next session only ranged narrowly, remaining under 1.1265 resistance. Not extending the recovery higher continues to suggest the dips are chipping away at support before extending down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows Wednesday fulfilled the next lower objective at 1266.00 by $2. Closing under Tuesday’s low is a second consecutive lower close that now requires at least an eventual third lower close before any recovery could be durable.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s fresh lows under 17.60 can extend lower so long as 17.85 holds bounces. Otherwise, closing back above 18.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up, at least initially for a sizeable bounce.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The two-week old low’s consolidation was probed more deeply Wednesday down to 165-09. But just closing back above 165-20/165-30 maintains that this week’s drop can be only a temporary correction. Firming Thursday would allow Friday’s Employment Situation report to be greeted from a position of strength and momentum.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fulfilling the rally’s 49.00 target did not end the upside momentum, especially so long as pullback limits are held. Wednesday’s gap up now raises the pullback limit to 48.35.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down slightly Wednesday was optimal for restraining optimism of Tuesday’s intraday recovery from initially probing negative territory. The pattern repeated itself Wednesday, recovering back into positive territory again. Filling the gap back up to 3.04 without closing decisively above it would be vulnerable to an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down on Thursday’s EIA report, but the pattern remains likely to recover.