Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday attempted to fulfill the minimum third higher close required by Friday’s confirmed breakout. Gapping up makes an immediate reversal down unlikely.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Monday’s less-than optimal confirmation of Friday’s breakout, Tuesday’s test of the 1236.50 pullback limit extended sharply higher overnight. The 1260.00 target was met at Wednesday’s opening gap up, and probed. Upside momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 1256.50 as support.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely filling the gap Tuesday back to Monday’s close didn’t prevent extending sharply higher overnight. Surging through the 16.60 buy signal Wednesday extended higher through the morning, next targeting resistance at a gap back to 17.15.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Retesting 167-00 Wednesday morning was unlikely to extend since the interim pullback was relatively shallow and had optimistically recovered quickly. Reversing down would be triggered by closing back under 166-12.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight held up through the morning, attacking the 51.45 objective up to 51.35. Reversing down immediately would leave a gap outstanding that requires being filled, but would at least confirm this area is resistance.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not first pulling back to 2.40 before rallying made Wednesday’s probe of fresh highs at 2.50 more difficult to extend. EIA is still being greeted from a position of strength, although a pullback would still be helpful. A knee-jerk reaction down must hold 2.35 to avoid reversing momentum down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down slightly Tuesday ranged narrowly within the prior two sessions’ range. The confirmed breakout requires at least an eventual third higher close, which is in-play so long as 1.1310 holds as support.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s second consecutive higher close above Friday’s surge was not optimal confirmation since all of the session’s legs overlapped Friday’s highs. But gapping down Tuesday bounced upon attacking the 1236.50 pullback limit, filling the gap back up to Monday’s 1247.00 close. Now 1236.50 becomes a sell signal.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back down Tuesday was recovered to attack Monday’s test of 16.50 resistance. Last week’s Island Reversal pattern must still be retested at the lows. Closing first above 16.60 would signal a bigger rally underway first.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday night’s pullback came within 4 of ticks of the 165-16 pullback limit before rallying Tuesday morning to attack Friday morning’s 166-22 high. Retesting the 167-00 high is likely before a durable decline begins, but closing under 165-16 would signal a downleg underway already.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday on news once again ignored the bigger distributive pattern forming that had held three consecutive tests of its 49.00 sell signal. It also ignored Monday’s “ineffectual optimism.” Not already reversing down Tuesday evening or at Wednesday’s open would be likely to test a fresh high at 51.45.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The fourth session of a 4-day alternating setup Tuesday was unlikely to maintain its probe of fresh highs. Beginning the session by gapping down would form a “pivot reversal” setup after rejecting fresh highs, although closing action was still overlapping Monday’s close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday eked out a slightly higher high intraday to threaten confirming that Friday’s surge had reversed momentum up, requiring at least an eventual third higher close with potential to 1.1510. An interim dip — whether or not corrective — would be signaled back under 1.1290.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Choppily eking out a slightly higher high intraday Monday threatened confirming that Friday’s surge had reversed momentum up, which would require at least an eventual third higher close having potential to 1260.00. An interim dip — whether or not corrective — would be signaled back under 1236.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up a little Monday held 16.50 resistance, and still avoided the 16.60 buy signal which would otherwise suggest a bigger corrective bounce underway before retesting last week’s Island pattern at the lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Friday above the long-standing 166-12 target had not put into play higher objectives, while intraday action formed an Ascending Triangle. Room for noise above it up to 167-00 was tested Sunday night before reacting down Monday to 165-29, and likely also to test 165-16.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Surging ahead of Monday’s open only attacked the original 49.95 objective to within a nickel before weakening through the morning back to last week’s “lower prior highs.” Gapping up and trading exclusively in positive territory without maintaining a probe above prior highs is “ineffectual optimism” that often resolves down without delay.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Leaving Friday’s gap up outstanding had not reversed down sustainably into negative territory, keeping the door open to extending the rally, which was done by Monday’s probe of fresh highs.

fA daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Chipping away previously at the 1.1205 bounce limit proved useful in Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report. Surging through it tested the two-week old consolidation’s upper-end at 1.1350. Back under 1.1315 would signal at least an attack on 1.1205 to prevent a more substantial multi-session corrective rally.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging through Thursday’s 1220.00 high in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report extended to test 1246.00. Back under 1231.00 would signal the surge was not gaining momentum, and under 1225.50 would signal momentum reversing down to retest Sunday night’s lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday from the consolidation around 16.00 forms an Island reversal pattern that requires being retested. Reversing down into that retest can begin at any time if 16.60 isn’t recovered — and Friday’s surge didn’t even touch 16.50.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report surged to fresh highs testing the 166-12 target up to 166-23. Its consolidation tried resolving up but only momentarily pierced a fresh high.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Without almost literally exploding higher, the ongoing distribution around 49.00 remains likely to capitulate down. A credible signal would already trend down sharply before the close. Friday’s reaction down didn’t fall very far, but gapping down Monday could compensate for the delay.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Higher highs before Friday’s open created a gap up that was reversed back under Thursday’s 2.40 close intraday. Thursday’s close fulfilled the minimum requirement of Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, so extending higher immediately would help to suggest the recovery’s momentum remains intact. Still testing 2.40 through the close at least doesn’t reject the rally’s momentum.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
ECB’s policy statement Thursday triggered volatility that probed back above the 1.1205 bounce limit. Closing above it would launch a sizable rally, even if only a correction. Meanwhile, Sunday night’s low can still be retested down to 1.1055.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite originating from a slightly higher low that retested Tuesday’s 1210.50 low, the bounce into Thursday’s open failed to violate the ongoing downtrend of lower highs. If Wednesday’s high doesn’t hold as resistance, then the bounce has additional room up to 1220.00 before no longer being likely to retest Sunday night’s low into the 1190‘s.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gravitating back up to the 16.00 attraction Thursday helped to solidify the congestion there and up to 16.15 that should continue to prevent a new durable downleg from beginning.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Retracing much of Wednesday’s intraday rally didn’t matter since its 163-05 buy signal remained triggered, which was proved by extending sharply higher Thursday. Greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from th position of strength of a confirmed breakout doesn’t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, but it does make a reaction down likely to be only temporary before extending to fresh highs targeting 166-12.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s recovery back up to its 49.00 sell signal after gapping down under it was essentially repeated Thursday amid heavy focus on OPEC meeting. The gap down was relatively higher, as was the reaction back up to 49.00. Still, negating the capitulative topping pattern all but requires almost literally exploding higher without much further delay.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from the position of strength of a confirmed breakout could have reacted down momentarily anyway, but didn’t. Extending higher without delay has already produced the eventual third higher close required by the confirmed breakout. This setup has no unfinished business above, so a durable rally is very dependent upon extending higher Friday, too.