Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s delay wasn”t entirely inappropriate for the recovery”s timing, if the recovery were still valid. Regardless, any further delay to recovery would be replaced by a new downleg. Just failing to gap up Thursday was already a warning. The morning”s plunge was by then old news. At this stage, recovery hopes depend upon not confirming Thursday”s break with a second consecutive lower close Friday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s continued weakness from Wednesday”s test of the bounce target could have resolved up if it has resolved up aggressively. Breaking lower instead has put the 1125.70 pullback limit to a retest, which must hold to avoid a deeper and unpredictable pullback..

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Even Gold”s weakness Thursday couldn”t motivate Silver to fill the gap back down to last Wednesday”s 14.35 opening gap, which would allow a recovery to be credible.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sideways ranging Wednesday seemed uninterested in the stock market strength, but there is still no pattern that requires resolving one way or the other next.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday”s bounce off the prior low under 46.00 had initially extended higher Thursday to probe above 48.00, requiring only to close positive to maintain the potential for retesting the highs up to 50.10.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday”s EIA report not from a position of strength nevertheless settled higher. Not back above the range”s upper-end, but attacking it, so that any early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s gap down didn”t extend lower intraday, so it didn”t necessarily reject Tuesday”s firming, or the potential for rallying back up to prior highs. But there is no bullish reason to further delay obvious rallying.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having fulfilled the minimum bounce objective Tuesday to within a dime at 1147.40, the reaction down got a little weaker Wednesday. Any higher high would next target a retest of the rally”s original 1169.00 target, and higher to the 1179.50 area.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow choppiness around 14.55 resistance continued to fight the requirement for filling the gap back to last Wednesday”s 14.35 gap down, which makes rally attempts less credible so long as it remains outstanding.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up again Wednesday also failed to extend higher intraday again. That didn”t result in a new downleg, although there is that vulnerability if only for being range bound instead of surging through 155-16 to retest the highs.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s post-close low had reacted to inventory data, which was repeated after bouncing overnight in reaction to Wednesday”s EIA report. Reacting up sharply from Monday”s 43.65 prior low”s retest to 46.00 further suggested that Tuesday”s retracement had not reversed the trend down, and that the rally”s momentum could still retest Monday”s high up to 50.10.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s restrained optimism of gapping up within the range without extending through it would have made fresh highs Wednesday credible for extending intraday. But Wednesday gapped down, also within the range, still giving clearance to fresh highs Thursday to extend. But the EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, so a knee-jerk reaction down can”t be precluded.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having held the maximum pullback potential for two days, a recovery needed to be underway without further delay to recover the prior week”s decline without launching new downleg. Tuesday did begin firming, but not yet overtly enough to be confident a recovery has begun.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight extended higher Tuesday morning to fulfill the 1147.40 bounce target. Its test reacted down, but closing above it with a second consecutive higher close for confirmation would put into play fresh highs above 1169.00”s original target.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Resistance at 14.55 held tests Tuesday as the gap back down to last Wednesday”s 14.35 open still should be filled before a recovery attempt would be credible for extending.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows overnight had recovered to gap up Tuesday morning. The gap up barely attacked the 155-24 buy signal before dipping back under Monday”s 154-08 low to fresh lows, albeit not quite back to the overnight low.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Third day was not so charming, after all, as the three-day surge reacted down sharply Tuesday to weak economic data globally, testing 45.55 whose break would start to signal the rally”s momentum has peaked. Reversing momentum down would be signaled under 44.15-44.75. There is otherwise potential to retest Monday”s high up to 50.10.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday from the range”s lower-end stopped pessimistically short of even touching 2.73. Extending higher early Wednesday would be credible for at least testing the 2.77 buy signal.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Narrow ranging Monday continued to hold the maximum pullback limit that at least allows an accumulative pattern to form. But the behaving like an inside day does essentially require the rally to resume without much further delay if a deeper drop will be avoided.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s initial weakness still held the 1125.70 pullback limit. The gap back to Friday”s 1133.00 close was filled but not recovered, so resuming the rally Tuesday all but requires launching earlier.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday and Friday”s test of the 14.55 bounce limit held, still needing to fill the gap back down to last Wednesday”s 14.35 opening gap before a recovery would be credible for extending higher.

30-year Treasury DecContract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday”s early probe above 155-24 was the buy signal”s third attempt to trigger. It wasn”t the most substantial attempt, but its rejection was the most substantial reaction down, attacking last week”s 154-00 low. The decline is on the precipice of resuming if a rally isn”t underway through Tuesday”s close.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Coming to within 20 cents of my 37.55 target and then hovering sideways for the next session still does not qualify as accumulation. So, the three-day surge from there isn”t any more durable just because it has recovered $11, but that”s still difficult momentum to retrace. And now it has potential to test 50.10 before a substantial reaction down might form.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night and extending lower tested last week”s lows around 2.65 without closing lower. That could qualify as the basis for a durable bottom, leaving no unfinished business below if a rally were to begin Tuesday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s flat open precluded forming an Island Reversal from Thursday”s range. But the combined Thursday-Friday pattern may still form an Island if Monday”s open were to gap up.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Brief overnight strength and then again post open began probing above the 1130.40 buy signal up to 1140.00, suggesting a tleast a test of 1147.40 is in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s bounce to 14.55 resistance hovered optimistically Friday, still needing to fill the gap back down to Wednesday”s 14.31 open before a durable recovery would be credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s probe above the 157-07 buy signal was more productive than Thursday”s attempt before falling back to 156-16. The buy signal remains valid nonetheless.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Backed into a corner with falling prices, the Saudis have taken matters into their own hands to goose prices. Now we know why Thursday”s rally was so substantial despite my target having been missed by 20 cents at the lo — Saudis were entering Yemen. The news pushed price even higher, no doubt aided by two days of impending illiquidity and the return of a pre-weekend premium for geopolitical risk. Back under 42.75 would suggest fresh lows in-play at 37.55.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s gap up didn”t leave any unfinished business below since Thursday”s range was essentially an inside day. The pattern remains credible for launching a new upleg so long as new lows are avoided.