Daily Spot
Daily Spot… Bigger bond bounce, while Gold gels.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Stopping optimistically short of touching prior lows Wednesday revealed weak-handed buying pressure, which Thursday”s gap down testing 1.0865 proved. Bouncing back to the decline”s 1.0935 target as resistance, the opening gap reflects lower lows yet to come.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday to Wednesday”s lows and no lower reflects weak-handed selling pressure. It”s not necessarily a bottom, and won”t necessarily avoid touching 1138.00. But probing above 1151.00 would be credible for extending higher without leaving unfinished business below.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday was reversed briefly into positive territory before spending the afternoon ranging narrowly around unchanged. Probing above Thursday”s 15.15 intraday high would be likely to extend in that direction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s tenuous close above 150-24 was retraced to test the 150-08 pullback limit down to 150-00 Thursday morning. It held, and rallying through the noon hour to fresh highs at 151-20. A second consecutive higher close would confirm Wednesday”s breakout, regardless of any unfinished business below being left outstanding.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s probing under 51.00 may be exploiting the continued delay in rallying that has made fresh lows targeting 48.00 increasingly likely.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday”s EIA report was negligible. This, despite the pattern”s excuse for reversing down since Wednesday”s inside day had neutralized the attraction back up to Tuesday”s 2.91 opening gap up. The 2.83 pullback limit was attacked, and its break would still target at least 2.77. But any new strength through 2.91 would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Daily Spot… Absorbing Yellen.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The drop extended through Wednesday”s open to fill the gap back down to last Tuesday”s actual 1.0935 open. Already trying to firm or to bounce is impatient optimism, and not likely to end the decline — although closing back above 1.1000 would be credible for reversing momentum up.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows Wednesday morning probed 1144.00 support, with potential for extending down to 1137.00 so long as bounces hold 1151.00 as resistance. Closing above 1158.50 would signal the decline”s momentum had lapsed and was probably also reversing back up.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A fresh reaction low Wednesday morning extended down to test 15.00 as support, which should be the maximum consequence to having tried prematurely to recover 15.35-15.45 resistance. Closing under 14.90 would suggest a deeper pullback underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying on Yellen”s testimony without yet probing a fresh low left only 150-24 resistance as a buy signal. It was tested Wednesday to 150-30, and closing back under 150-08 would signal fresh lows in-play to at least 149-08.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sideways ranging became flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday. Instead of launching a rally, at least a fresh low targeting 48.00 has become increasingly likely.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s pre-open rally was already neutralizing the attraction back up to Tuesday”s 2.91 gap up. The balance of the session ranged narrowly at the high, not rejecting the filled gap — greeting Thursday”s EIA report from a position of strength.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday”s test of 1.1000 support was probed slightly overnight before bouncing into Tuesday”s gap up. Filling the gap back down to 1.0935 remains in-play, so the bounce quickly peaked upon attacking 1.1100 and reversed back down to 1.1000 support.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having recovered only to 1158.50 Monday but no higher, Tuesday”s narrowly ranging inside day reinstates the potential for trending through 1158.50 and 1163.00 to signal a new rally leg..
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s low was pierced overnight but Tuesday”s intraday range was otherwise an inside day. Its downward bias would make a surge through 15.45 credible to gain traction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow ranging Tuesday around Monday”s close didn”t qualify as the fresh low, which is still needed at 148-08 or lower, before a buy signal would be credible any lower than 150-24.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An overnight dip in reaction to the Iran treaty”s announcement was recovered back to 52.00 support before Tuesday”s open. But that still wasn”t reversed up to even attack the 54.30 buy signal, making fresh lows targeting 48.00 increasingly possible.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight tested 2.93 at Tuesday”s open before reversing down intraday to test 2.83 as support. The pattern shouldn”t require any further backing-and-filling before extending to probe above 3.00.
Daily Spot… Shake on it!
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night”s reaction to the Greece deal tried holding 1.1120 support but eventually slid through it Monday, testing 1.1000 support, and still targeting 1.0935.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week”s bounces had held the 1163.00 buy signal. Monday”s slide tested 1150.00 to within $3 of prior lows before bouncing back to 1158.50 resistance. Closing back above 1158.50 does suggest the dips are weak-handed, making any probe above 1163.00 that much likelier to extend higher intraday.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s weak-handed attempt to extend above 15.35-15.45 resistance was retraced Monday back toward 15.25, but still recovered back up to 15.45. That action may have neutralized Friday”s premature rally effort, so that early strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Sunday night was reversed to fresh lows before Monday”s open as a Greece deal was reached. Firming intraday tried to avoid another lower close, which would allow a lower buy signal than 150-24.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness managed to hold within the recent range to avoid extending the decline. But recovering 54.30 is still needed to prevent the narrow range from becoming a continuation pattern.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to test 2.83 resistance and probing it temporarily to 2.88 was no more bullish than Friday”s rally that closed at 2.77 resistance. Closing above either is needed to signal trending, especially if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close the following day.
Daily Spot.. Greek gifts.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A funny thing happened on the way to filling the gap back to Tuesday”s 1.0935 opening gap. The interim test of the 1.1200 bounce limit had reacted down Thursday only to test 1.1000 support. The post-close Greece news triggered a gap up above the interim highs to test 1.1325 before drifting back down Friday to attack 1.1200 as support. Back under 1.1200 makes 1.0935”s test likelier next., but there is otherwise no active signal.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow ranging only narrowed Friday, hovering just under the 1163.00 buy signal with no new information..
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing above 15.35-15.45 avoided the shallow dip needed to stretch the rubber band so it could snap back up and launch a rally. Without snapping back up from a blip-down, there is room to at least 15.85 before even beginning to suggest momentum is reversing up.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The Greece news after Thursday”s close gave the intraday drop to 150-16 a steroid injection that extended it down sharply. The week-old gap back to 149-07 was filled, and held. Back above 150-24 would signal momentum reversing back up.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging persisted for the fourth consecutive session, still not extending the decline, but also not yet reversing it back above 54.30.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s “pivotal reversal” extended higher immediately to gap up Friday, and to extend higher intraday, but still overlapping 2.77 resistance into the close..
