Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Duplicating Friday”s downtrend on Monday morning wasn”t precluded by gapping up. The balance of the morning still could have trended down, and that could have been a bullish setup. So, it”s not bullish that the opportunity wasn”t exploited instead of already rallying throughout the day. A retest of the 1.2515 low remains likely.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s gap up extended higher throughout the day. But it remained within Friday”s range, forming an “inside day” that is likely to resolve bearishly by resuming the decline to its 1167.50 target.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday extended higher to fill the gap back to Thursday”s close. Without closing higher, the recovery only neutralized the attraction above which no longer inhibits extending down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday”s firming back up to 139”25 proved that Friday”s muted reaction to the Employment Situation report suggests the market intends to retest recent highs.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Fresh lows Monday were retraced back into positive territory. It”s not a buy signal, and doesn”t prevent probing lower lows. But the price action does suggest that selling sponsorship needs only near-term rewards to satisfy it.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s recovery from 3.91 to close above 4.01 was retraced entirely by gapping down Monday to test 3.91 support. Closing back above 3.93 would signal the drop had been absorbed.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday”s gap down immediately retested Tuesday”s gap down to neutralize its attraction. That didn”t prevent extending to fresh lows. The session didn”t recover, so a bottom hasn”t formed. And since Monday mornings tend to duplicate Friday”s trending, lower lows remain likely. However, that Friday-Monday relationship can be fulfilled by trading down to Friday”s lows after gapping up, and then rallying through the afternoon.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The follow-through to Tuesday”s sell signal finally appeared Friday, in aggressive and substantial probe of new lows that was expected. Thanks to the delay, the drop also qualifies as a new breakout. So, a second consecutive lower close Monday would confirm, and require an eventual third lower close on the way to 1167.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s initial reaction down on the Employment Situation report was quickly retraced back into the week”s range. That was brief, and the balance of the morning trended down to fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday morning”s reaction to the Employment Situation report was surprisingly brief and relatively shallow. All potential corrective rally targets had been met and held, and retested, with a reaction down already underway into the news. The news sent prices yet lower from  to 138-11. Despite having so little attraction above and so much momentum pointing down, the balance of the morning ranged choppily sideways, narrowing through the noon hour and probing further into positive territory in the afternoon. That”s not a bearish resolution, not yet.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Firming overnight to test 91.75 gave way to a drop back into Thursday”s range on Friday. Closing at or under 89.85-90.15 creates room for dropping down to 87.25 or 85.95, albeit temporarily. Closing back above 91.60 would instead put 93.00-93.50 back in-play without delay.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday night”s bounce above 4.01 was retraced at Friday”s open to fill the gap back to Thursday”s 3.95 close. The balance of the session rallied back to and through the overnight high, putting the rally back in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))

Gapping up Thursday quickly extended to fill the gap back to Monday”s 1.2700 close, and then dipped back down under Tuesday and Wednesday”s highs. The dip was recovered back up to 1.2700. Extending next to 1.2750 would be vulnerable to reversing down. Dipping first to retest the lows would be more capable of forming a bottom.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))

Thursday”s initial weakness was well within the recent range, and it was retraced back to unchanged and even briefly into positive territory. The lack of volatility isn”t bullish, although it does leave the door open to triggering the 1222.80 buy signal. But the pattern meanwhile remains more vulnerable to trending down sharply in reaction to Friday”s Employment Situation report.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))

Gapping down Thursday never extended back to the lows, let alone through them. It also didn”t retrace. The”ineffectual pessimism” would be bullish if a fresh low were recovered Friday, but not otherwise.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))

Post-close highs Wednesday accompanied stocks falling to fresh session lows. Higher highs overnight filled the gap back to the high”s close around 140-01. But the post-close and overnight higher highs disappeared entirely by Thursday”s open, which continued to hold the corrective rally”s maximum resistance at 139-22. Closing back under 138-16 would confirm the corrective bounce had ended.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))

Fresh lows overnight down to 88.18 were retraced back up to the 91.00 area Thursday. But not before the post-open bounce had filled the gap back to Wednesday”s close, which then dipped to fill the gap back to Thursday”s open. There is no unfinished business below, and almost any initial strength would be credible for retesting 93.00-93.50 resistance.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))

Closing under the 4.08 pullback limit Wednesday might have proved to be only defensive posturing ahead of Thursday”s EIA report. But it prevented holding long into the report. Good thing for that, because it wasn”t defensive posturing. The reaction down extended lower to 3.91 support. Closing back above 4.01 would reverse the trend up, but there is otherwise no active signal.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))

Without a requirement to trend any lower, and no necessary attraction above, Wednesday”s gap down only ranged sideways. It was actually more of an inside day A sudden bounce would still be likely to retest Tuesday”s lower open before a durable recovery leg could form.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))

Wednesday”s narrow ranging settled positive and above 1212.00, not confirming Tuesday”s breakout close. Regardless, no buy signal triggered, nor would it have been credible. The sequence is vulnerable to breaking sharply lower Thursday — not breaking lower Thursday would re-open the door to rallying into the weekend.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))

Wednesday”s firming was too weak to recover above Tuesday”s post-open high, leaving no actionable pattern.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))

Tuesday”s dip had held above the rally”s pullback limit to keep alive attractions to 139-10 and 139-24 areas. Extending higher through Wednesday ”s open peaked intraday almost precisely halfway between both objectives.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))

Tuesday”s deflationary plunge to my lowest calculable support at 91.00 was recovered Wednesday to attack the original 93.00 target. That $2 rally took a $2 reversal and reacted back down to attack 91.00.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh highs overnight up to 4.18 immediately reversed down at Wednesday”s open, holding unchanged levels until a mid-afternoon drop through the 4.08 pullback limit to 4.05. Perhaps the weakness is constructive pessimism ahead of Thursday”s EIA report. Closing above 4.08 Thursday would be bullish.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday”s narrow ranging at Friday”s low had fulfilled the requirement to remain under pressure, and had created no new lower objective. So, breaking lower Tuesday is doubly bearish — not only for creating a gap down that will require being filled eventually from above, but also for not exploiting a potentially bullish setup.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The ongoing delay in recovering above 1220.80 was an accident waiting to happen that finally did. An overnight drop gapped down Tuesday to fresh lows. A complete recovery to 1220.80 was retraced entirely back down to fresh lows at 1204.30. Just closing under 1212.00 signals a breakout underway targeting 1167.50, to be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Wednesday.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s addition to the ongoing sideways ranging launched a break lower overnight that remained under pressure throughout Tuesday, never threatening to turn positive. Closing under 17.12 for a second consecutive session Wednesday would confirm the breakout, targeting 15.65.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight pullback from Monday”s test of 138-16 resistance touched last week”s 138-00 highs as support but never reversed momentum down. Tuesday”s intraday recovery back to unchanged around 138-10 keeps alive potential for the corrective rally to probe fresh high.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Deflation fears dragged Crude Oil back down nearly $2 to the 93.00 buy signal, where the drop inflected down sharply to test 90.85. There is no lower support whose test would be bullish. Closing without delay back above .92.00 may be the only way to avoid a more destructive decline..

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday ranging around 4.15 didn”t reject the rally, which is targeting 4.25 so long as pullbacks continue holding 4.08 as support.