Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Wednesday’s double-digit Gold plunge finally met the correction’s target. The Dollar Index’s fresh highs simultaneously tested resistance. Their trends should reverse direction by mid-day Thursday, unless the trends intend to extend much further.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The next higher target at 84.20 was touched very early Wednesday, and held. Back under 83.60 would signal the rally’s end and its reversal. There is otherwise potential for extending the rally up to 84.45.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Extended to fresh lows Tuesday kept alive the decline next targeting 1.2875, which was probed down to 1.2845. Closing any lower would target new lows at 1.2745.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s third consecutive intraday probe under 1429.50 had all but required extending to the 1400.00 objective without further delay. The overnight drop extending through Wednesday morning to 1389.00. Back above 1419.00 would signal the drop had ended and momentum was reversing up, targeting 1532.50. Bounces should meanwhile hold 1409.50 if there is any potential for extending the decline through 1483.00 to new lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight selling extended to finally test the pullback’s 22.95 objective. Hesitation there soon resolved down to 22.45. Back above 23.25 would signal the drop had ended and momentum was reversing up. The decline is otherwise next targeting 21.55-21.75.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s drop extended further overnight to attack 143-13 within 3 ticks. Wednesday morning’s bounce was retraced back to the overnight lows. But a close under 143-13 is needed to put into play 142-20. Any recovery signal otherwise depends upon closing back above 144-24.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The drop extended down sharply from Tuesday’s 94.25 close into Wednesday’s open, soon testing 92.35 support. The entire drop was recovered into noon. And there is still room up to 96.00 before any higher close would signal 98.10 is in-play — and probably higher.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thorough testing of 3.95-4.00 from above and below produced a gap up Wednesday to test the 4.05 buy signal. Recovering it on a closing basis would target 4.16, whose recovery would trigger a new upleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Is Gold ready to complete its corrective drop? It continued chipping away at support for a third consecutive session Tuesday, while the Dollar Index firmed to fresh highs.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having held its pullback limit Monday, the recovery firmed Tuesday to fresh highs attacking 83.75. So long as 83.50 holds as support, the rally can next target 84.20 and 84.45.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s fresh low testing 1.2935 can extend to 1.2875 if 1.3000 isn’t recovered first.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday produced another intraday dip under 1429.50 to test 1420.00, which reacted up again. Its reaction held a retest of Friday’s 1438.00 high, sending price back down under 1429.50, and maintaining the potential for extending to 1400.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down attacked 23.00 support before bouncing to almost fill the open’s gap back up to Monday’s 23.70 close, leaving outstanding the 22.95 pullback target.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite gapping up above 144-24 and quickly extending higher to 145-04, the decline soon resumed to fresh lows under 143-30. Closing under 143-13 would put into play 142-20. Closing first above 144-24 would trigger at least a corrective bounce targeting 146-18.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s recovery did not extend any higher Tuesday. But the weaker open did not extend down intraday, so any strength above 96.00 is still likely to resume the rally targeting 98.10.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s probe into the 3.95-4.00 range was more forceful than Monday’s. But a close above 4.05 is still needed to target 4.16, whose recovery would trigger a new upleg.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Despite probing a fresh low Monday, the long bond’s decline lost a lot of momentum. Not extending the decline Tuesday would suggest at least a corrective bounce is beginning.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s sideways ranging did not threaten its 82.70 pullback limit, keeping the rally’s momentum intact.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The decline’s 1.3105 bounce limit was not threatened Monday, keeping its momentum intact.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s post-close rally back up to 1448.00 was reversed Sunday night, retesting the drop’s 1429.50 target Monday, which held again through the close. It’s not yet enough to signal the corrective drop has ended, or to prevent first testing 1400.00, but it does still suggest a test of 1400.00 would likely hold.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sideways ranging Monday held 23.55 support, but also avoided recovering any prior high that might inhibit reversing back down to test the corrective drop’s eventual 22.95 target.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s gap down extended to test 144-06. Bounces were resisted by the decline’s 144-28 target that had held its test as support Friday. Closing back above 145-06 would now begin signaling a bigger bounce underway.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s open gapped down slightly from Friday’s recovery to 96.00. Dipping down a little further didn’t extend as the session formed an inside day. Back above 96.00 would now be capable of resuming the rally targeting 98.10. Back under 93.75 would extend the decline.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 3.95-4.00 range was probed as resistance from below on Monday, still needing a recovery above 4.05 to signal momentum reversing up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond had indeed ended a corrective bounce Thursday, plunging to new relative lows at Friday’s open, and extending lower. The intraday lows held a test of the decline’s target, so the decline must close lower Monday to avoid bottoming.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fulfilling the bounce’s 82.80 target did not slow the rally, which gapped up Friday and extended higher to test 83.50. Now the rally’s momentum remains intact so long as 82.70 were to hold as support.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s plunge to 1.3015 extended down Friday to test 1.2940. The decline next targets 1.2865 so long as 1.3105 is not recovered.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
As suspected, the break under 1463.50 to resume the decline targeting 1429.50 would likely happen overnight, and slice through interim support. Thursday night’s $40 plunge was testing 1429.50 at Friday’s open, before extending to 1418.50 intraday. A surge recovered to close back above 1429.50. Friday’s lows can still be retested down to 1400.00, a test that would probably hold, unless Monday were to close back above 1452.00..

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down to 23.25 and consolidating down to 23.15 never extended lower to the 22.95 pullback target. An afternoon surge recovered to Wednesday’s higher prior lows at 23.65. Only gapping up above 24.00 could signal that fresh lows aren’t still in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s plunge compensated for the delay from Thursday’s test of the 147-02 bounce limit up to 147-12. Friday’s open gapped down under all prior lows before extending down sharply to 144-17. The 144-28 target was recovered through the close. A bounce should hold a test of 145-20 if the decline intends to extend to 143-00.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s gap down under 96.00 had undermined the rally. Friday’s open gapped down to 94.75 and extended lower to 93.37. An afternoon rally attacked 96.00 to within 50 cents, which is not a buy signal, but does keep alive the rally’s potential.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip back down to 3.91 rejected Thursday’s bounce back up to 4.00, but 4.05 still must be recovered before signaling that momentum is reversing up.

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Did the long bond’s bounce into Thursday’s auction trap all available longs? Not if Thursday’s high is exceeded into the weekend.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
82.15 was recovered very quickly Thursday morning, on the way to 82.40, whose recovery would reinstate momentum targeting 82.80.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s gap down back under 1.3150 extended to 1.3105, which held tests as support. Its break would renew the decline.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday all but rejected Wednesday’s close above 1467.50, which the balance of the session ranged around. Closing under its 1458.80 low would still signal a bigger slide underway targeting 1429.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s narrow ranging offered no new signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up immediately tested the 147-02 bounce limit. Its dip back into negative territory was recovered to fresh highs at 147-12 on the auction results. Its reaction down struggled to hold positive territory, while the bounce limit did hole. Any valid resumption of the decline targeting 144-28 should still be at an accelerated pace.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Gapping down back to and through 96.00 undermines the rally’s momentum, and its 98.10 target.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows on Thursday’s EIA report were recovered back up through the 3.95-4.00 area, which was still being tested through the afternoon. Extending back above it through 4.05 would target 4.16.

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