Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s buyers were rewarded Wednesday for having absorbed two consecutive sessions of intraday dips. The reward was delivered so quickly that the pattern has greater potential for extending even higher.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The rally through Tuesday needed to begin reversing down immediately if it were going to avoid extending much higher. Wednesday’s narrow ranging didn’t probe any higher, so the delay can be excused if a drop is evident early Thursday.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
A rejection of Tuesday’s test of recent lows was needed without delay to maintain potential for resuming and extending the rally. Wednesday’s narrow sideways ranging allows delaying the resolution into Thursday’s open.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday night’s recovery back above 1418.50-1420.00 resistance extended back up to 1433.50. There continues to be no reason for much further delay in extending the rally through 1441.00 resistance to fulfill its 1556.00 1456.00 objective.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down didn’t seem to have gained traction. An overnight rally held tests of the 23.25 buy signal, but still gapped up Wednesday. Extending above 23.55 would confirm a new rally leg underway initially targeting 24.15.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s reaction down from attacking the 149-14 objective repeated recent prior behavior of consolidating narrowly at 148-00 pullback limit. Despite the potential unfinished business above, the uptrend continues to appear tenuous.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
This week’s volatile dips that nevertheless recovered back up to 89.20 had earned a probe of fresh highs to at least 91.05. That was probed by Wednesday’s $2.30 rally testing 91.50. Holding above 90.55 would allow extending higher to test 93.55-93.75.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The retracement of last Thursday’s surge was retraced entirely back to its 4.17 origin at Wednesday’s low. However, the breakout needed to hold 4.21 to be assured of resuming the rally. Now, 4.35 must be recovered to signal the rally has resumed.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s two consecutive deep intraday/overnight drops probably have earned at least an obligatory fresh high, presumably by a minimum $2 margin, if not much more.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Despite having retraced Monday’s fresh highs back to the 82.80 bounce limit, Tuesday’s open gapped up and ranged sideways around Monday’s 83.05 high. Delaying the decline’s resumption any longer would all but require extending the rally to fresh highs.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday’s gap down recovered only enough for the balance of the session to range around the 1.3020 prior low. Its immediate recovery is not only likely, but also required in order to resume the rally before testing 1.2955 and probably breaking lower.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s dip to 1418.00-1420.00 was probed overnight instead of recovering the 1432.50 buy signal. The deeper dip to 1408.00 and 1404.00 still closed back above the 1409.00 prior highs. Recovering 1421.00 would now trigger another rally leg targeting 1441.00 and 1456.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Recovering Monday back above 23.25 had failed to close above the 23.55 buy signal, so Tuesday’s open wasn’t inhibited from gapping down under 22.90 and probing new intraday lows at 22.55. That’s still above last week’s 22.43 overnight low, and now back above 23.25 would signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 149-14 target attracted price higher overnight to 149-06, but Tuesday once again was more about testing and holding the 148-00 pullback limit.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite having recovered back above the morning’s highs, Monday’s volatile dip into negative territory was retraced overnight. And despite retracing the dip to produce a gap down Tuesday, the balance of the session recovered back to Monday’s highs. A fresh high targeting at least 91.05 remains likely.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The retracement of Thursday’s surge extended lower Monday night to test 4.21. Any lower would require a new accumulation pattern to form before triggering a buy signal.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold rally Sunday night made good on Friday’s warning to bears. The 38.2% retracement back to Friday’s lows keeps the door wide open to extending the rally sharply higher Tuesday.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s probe of fresh highs up to 83.05 was reversed back down to test 82.80 and maintain the potential for resuming the decline to 81.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s test of 1.3020 support held, but the rally’s resumption to at least test 1.3200 still requires extending above 1.3105.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s “warning shot across the bow” above 1395.00-1400.00 was followed by Sunday night’s direct hit that took price up sharply to attack 1441.00 before the open. The regular session’s dip held 1418.00-1420.00 and back above 1432.50 should now resume the rally through 1441.00 to 1456.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up back to 23.55 held as resistance through the day, while 23.25 held as support, allowing the rally to 24.15 to resume if there is no further delay or dip.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s retest of the 148-19prior high held the 148-00 pullback limit to maintain potential up to 149-14.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s gap up filled the gap back to last Tuesday’s 89.00 close. Its intraday reaction down into negative territory was recovered back to the morning’s highs, suggesting that 91.05 would be tested next.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s failure to confirm Thursday’s surge allowed Monday’s gap down, which retraced a healthy 61.8% of the breakout down to 4.26. Back above 4.35 would resume the breakout.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s initial surge Friday morning was retraced entirely, but its pullback limit held. Almost any new attempt to rally Monday would suggest that Friday’s “warning shot across the bow” meant business.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s initial dips were recovered into positive territory, and the afternoon tested the 82.80 bounce limit that must hold in order to keep alive potential for resuming the decline down to 81.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s tests of 1.3105 resistance up to 1.3135 were retraced back into Thursday’s range, but never turned negative intraday. The next probe above 1.3105 must extend to fill the gap back up to 1.3200 or else the recovery pattern will be undermined.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
1395.00-1400.00 served as an inflection point to a surge Thursday night that attacked the 1428.00 objective. Its complete retracement prior to actually touching 1428.00 suggests that its eventual test will extend higher, probably to 1441.00 and then 1456.00. But 1395.00 must meanwhile hold as support, and it was being tested Friday afternoon down to 1391.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s dip to 22.87 didn’t threaten 22.45, keeping alive the attraction up to at least 24.15, but closing above 23.25-23.55 is needed to trigger a breakout.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s narrow ranging around 148.00 was interesting for its lack of volatility, keeping alive potential for at least a temporary probe of fresh highs, potentially up to 149-14.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday night’s fresh highs tested 88.80 before reacting back down temporarily into negative territory. Back under 88.15 at this stage would end the rally, resuming the decline to 85.00. Otherwise, almost any further strength would target 91.00.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s surge only consolidated Friday, and did not extend higher to confirm the larger pattern’s breakout. The rally can still resume so long as pullbacks recover quickly from testing 4.30-4.32.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Thursday’s Natty Gas surge fulfilled the 2-day Pivot Reversal setup. Thanks to the tremendous intraday move, its target is only slightly higher. But also thanks to the tremendous intraday move, the pattern has potential to become a much more substantial rally.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The 82.80 bounce limit held as resistance Thursday to maintain potential for resuming the drop targeting 81.40.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday’s flat-to-higher range only attacked 1.3105 instead of recovering it to fill the gap to 1.3200, or to resume the rally next targeting 1.3325.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night’s break under the range’s 1364.50-1372.00 lower-end extended $30 as was expected, plunging to test 1335.50. Also as was expected the reaction recovered entirely, testing the range’s 1395.00-1400.00 upper-end. Regular Trading Hours consolidated around the upper-end, and any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending sharply higher into and out of the weekend, initially targeting 1428.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday night’s drop was recovered enough to hold tests of 22.45 intraday Thursday, keeping alive the attraction to 24.15 by the next rally attempt.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s consolidation was exclusively above the 148-00 pullback limit, maintaining the 149-16 target.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite having bounced overnight up to 88.15 from Wednesday’s 86.75 close, Thursday’s open gapped up only modestly. The balance of the session recovered to probe the overnight high. The bounce must hold 89.00 as resistance to maintain its potential for extending down to 85.00.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The two-day Pivot Reversal setup that completed on Wednesday required  very sharp follow-through Thursday to prove a breakout was underway. The 4.18 pullback limit held a touch before reacting to EIA by surging to 4.33. The break extended higher to 4.41, targeting 4.50 so long as 4.33 now holds as support. Extended targets are 4.75-4.87 and higher.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…