Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout still requires an eventual third lower close before bottoming would be credible for reversing up. Thursday’s narrowly ranging “inside day” isn’t itself predictive, but closing above its 1.1862 upper-end after first probing a fresh low under 1.1790 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Thursday’s open after piercing fresh lows overnight didn’t find sponsorship intraday, which developed entirely within Wednesday’s range. The “inside day” isn’t itself predictive. But closing above its 1291.50 upper-end — especially if after retesting Wednesday night’s low — would signal momentum reversing up.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming after Wednesday’s close had tested the 16.45 bounce limit, which extended higher intraday to test 16.50. Not yet resuming the decline at this stage suggests that a bigger or longer-lasting detour is underway. Having just done that, I’m suspicious of there being sponsorship to do it again now. Back under 16.40 would signal the decline had resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having confirmed the breakout requiring at least an eventual third lower close, and already having avoided fulfilling it Wednesday, firming overnight was likely to fail. In fact, Thursday’s open gapped down and trended lower to fresh lows at 140-12 to fulfill the minimum objective. The trend remains down so long as 141-04 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Vulnerability to a deep detour below was negated by Thursday’s gap up above the recent extended range. Reversing down now would no longer be only a temporary detour. Meanwhile, gapping up above all prior highs now creates another attraction above at 72.06 to help recover from a dip. Speaking of which, Thursday’s gap up retraced back into the prior range to 71.10, and has room to test 70.85 before suggesting momentum is reversing down anyway.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s dip had stopped short of 2.78 to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. It was touched by the news’ initially negative knee-jerk reaction, which snapped back up sharply into positive territory. The gap back to Tuesday’s 2.86 open was filled, and held, to avoid signaling a new upleg is necessarily underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Immediately extending Tuesday’s drop (by closing lower, not by gapping down) has confirmed the breakout from a multi-session range. An eventual third lower close is required before a bottoming effort can be credible.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s lower lows were retraced to unchanged, but the bounce limit was lowered to 1295.00. Firming slightly higher after the close at this stage should either give the bounce limit a test on Thursday, or else snap back down to resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Wednesday morning extended through the close to attack the 16.45 bounce limit. Stopping optimistically short of even filling the 2-week old gap, and now bouncing higher instead of neutralizing the downside attraction, is requiring a substantial rally Thursday, or else a substantial resumption of the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap up was shallow, and retraced back into negative territory, attacking Tuesday’s lows down to 140-28. The breakout was already confirmed, so the pattern still requires an eventual third lower close before bottoming can be credible.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another day of extremely narrow ranging — not yet extending the entrenched rally — continues to be vulnerable to a deeper corrective detour down before resuming the rally.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Pulling back further Wednesday from Tuesday’s failed gap up didn’t get to 2.80, whose test could have held to form a position of strength ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. But closing back under 2.76 was needed to form a position of weakness, which means that a favorable reaction Thursday can’t be dismissed.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The bottoming opportunity followed Gold’s plunge to fail holding its 1.1960 and 1.1890 pullback limits. The gap down was above prior lows so an immediate recovery wouldn’t be problematic, so  we’ll continue monitoring for a potential bottom.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already trending down under 1316.00 after Monday’s close, and extending down sharply overnight, Tuesday gapped down under all prior lows and extended much deeper to fulfill the outstanding 1294.00 objective The trend remains down so long as bounces now hold 1298.50 as resistance.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing Monday in a test of the 16.65 pullback limit had avoided signaling the corrective bounce was done. But it was done nonetheless, extending down much deeper overnight into Tuesday. Not to fresh lows — in fact, stopping optimistically short of filling the two week-old gap back down to the 16.15 low close. The trend remains down so long as bounces now hold 16.55.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
There was no reason to further delay breaking lower Monday if that were the pattern’s objective. It did, and despite bouncing to 143-19, Tuesday’s open was greeted by gapping down and extending down to fresh lows at 141-01. That is a second consecutive lower close from a multi-session range, confirming its breakout and now requiring an eventual third lower close.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
More narrow ranging in both positive and negative territory Tuesday continue delaying the rally’s resumption to its 74.10 objective. But it also entrenches the uptrend and creates a position of strength that the pattern often exploits when trending slows without being rejected.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing a fresh recovery high Tuesday pierced the two-week old 2.44 high up to 2.85 whose recovery would start to signal a bigger rally underway. The balance of the session fluctuated narrowly around unchanged, back into negative territory. Meanwhile, the decline remains vulnerable to resuming on a close under 2.78.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s open quickly extended through the lower-end of the 1.1975-1.2025 buy signal to touch its upper-end, still needing to close higher to signal the a reversal underway. Dipping from the open held the range’s lower-end.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Monday held above 1316.00 whose break would end the corrective bounce without needing to fulfill its 1329.00 potential first.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already having fulfilled the minimum 16.80 bounce potential, Monday’s dip back down to the 16.65 sell signal threatened to reverse the trend back down. Closing under it would be credible for resuming the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Higher prior lows had been tested, gaps had been filled, and the buy signal had been threatened. There was no excuse to further delay another break under the 143-07 sell signal Monday, which extended down to attack Thursday’s 142-17 low. That stopped optimistically short before retracing 61.8% back up to Friday’s close. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday is still needed to confirm another downleg underway.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness tested the 70.25 pullback limit to within 1 penny. Narrow intraday ranging Monday didn’t exploit having contained the dip, keeping alive potential for a deeper detour down on the way up to 74.10.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight strength continued firming Monday to test the two-week old 2.85 high that had ended the last rally attempt. Closing back under 2.80 is the nearest sell signal.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already firming into Friday’s open held its gains to test Thursday’s 1.1975 high. That’s the beginning of resistance up to 1.2025 whose recovery would signal a bounce underway, if not also the trend reversing up (i.e. bottom).

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday to 1326.00 was $2-3 short of the corrective bounce potential. But reversing down intraday back under Thursday’s highs filled the gap back down to natural support at Thursday’s close. The reversal also helped to avoid a second consecutive higher close that otherwise could have prolonged the rally.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh recovery highs tested the 16.80 corrective bounce target Friday morning, probing it and then reversing back under it. Holding its resistance would help to maintain the corrective bounce pattern, but reversing down immediately wouldn’t be necessary.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight touched the 143-19 buy signal Friday morning, and held it. Reversing back down tested the 143-07 sell signal, and fluctuated around it. Having tested both, their support and resistance should be weakened sufficiently to break durably in either direction.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another narrowly ranging session at the highs helps to entrench the uptrend still targeting 74.10. But another narrowly ranging session without yet extending the rally does start making a temporary corrective dip likelier. There’s room down to 70.25 before suggesting anything deeper underway.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly and essentially flat on Friday didn’t reject Thursday’s rally back to the 2.82 corrective bounce’s high. But neither was Thursday’s rally confirmed, so no higher close is required. That said, another fresh high close at this stage of the pattern would still be more bullish than bearish.