Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
1.2475 resistance was probed into through Tuesday’s open and held a test of Friday’s high before reversing back down to unchanged. Just closing back under Friday’s range indicates the bounce was weak-handed, still needing confirmation of following through to the downside.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Apr, which trades at about a $5 premium to Feb]… Bouncing Tuesday tested the 1350.50 bounce limit which reacted down to probe under Monday’s low and to retest the 1340.00 area “lower prior highs” whose test on Monday had triggered the interim bounce. Sellers gained no traction for their effort.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday probed higher only briefly before its test of 17.30 resistance had pushed back down to retest Monday’s low. The gap back down to Monday’s close is filled, which doesn’t equate to being a buy signal, but would be constructive to another rally attempt succeeding.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s open didn’t gap down as Monday’s “ineffectually optimistic” pattern usually resolves, but the trend remained down as fresh lows were probed into the afternoon. Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement is being greeted from a position of weakness.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s bounce off of 64.95 support was recovered only back above last Thu-Fri low, but did not reverse momentum up. Dipping into Tuesday’s open extended down to test critical support at 64.20. Back above 64.95 would resume the rally.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and ranging sideways throughout Tuesday still produced a higher close, which fulfills the minimum requirement for last week’s confirmed breakout. Meanwhile, the session may have formed an Island, a pattern that can reverse down but only temporarily.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap down is in-line with the Head & Shoulders top that had formed through Friday’s bounce. A temporary correction down to 1.2365 or 1.2305 is now in-play so long as bounces hold 1.2460 before a last probe of new highs can develop.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday night’s dip had held the rally’s 1345.00 pullback limit and wasn’t threatened intraday Friday, which maintained the 1368.50 target. But Sunday night’s renewed selling probed deeper, extending the pullback to attack “lower prior highs” at 1335.50. Regardless, at least the gap back up to Friday’s close and potentially 1368.50 remain in-play so long as the pullback doesn’t close under 1328.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s retest of the rally’s 17.30 pullback limit jeopardize the upside momentum. Already having tested its 17.72 target to within a penny doesn’t help to attract sponsorship for holding the pullback limit. But already extending lower Monday to test 17.10 may have expended more energy than sustainable without a bounce.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The pattern extended down to fresh lows Sunday night, now leaving a gap above that may help to encourage a recovery when the decline has finished. At least another fresh low remains likely, and retracing it sufficiently before Friday’s jobs report could form a bottom.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s dip into Monday morning tested the 64.95 pullback limit. Closing above last Thu-Fri 65.37 low suggests the pullback will hold, and back above 66.05 would resume the rally targeting 67.15.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday was in-line with expectations for not extending the rally without a somewhat brief yet deeper correction. Yet, the drop immediately began recovering and filled the gap back up to Friday’s 3.18 close. The pattern’s timing is difficult at this point, but at least another new recovery high close remains likely.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Another well-timed remark from Mnuchin triggered a surge that mostly retraced Thursday’s drop. Thursday’s drop had retraced the morning’s surge. Has the administration talked currencies into forming Head & Shoulders tops? Back under 1.2390 would trigger the reversal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Plunging after Thursday’s close tested the rally’s 1345.00 pullback limit. Having attacked the 1369.50 target only hours earlier, there’s potential for the reversal to extend. But Friday morning held. But the target otherwise remains intact so long as the pullback limit holds through the close.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Attacking the 17.72 target to within 1 penny certainly made it easier for Thursday’s post-close plunge that tested both recent 17.30 and 17.11 buy signals as support. But holding 17.30 through the close, at least through Friday morning, keeps alive the potential for recovering the drop’s origin and more thoroughly testing the high.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce didn’t extend overnight, and Friday morning retraced the recovery attempt further, still likely to produce lower lows so long as 149-10 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The reaction down from having gapped up to test 66.05 resistance was retraced to 65.37 “lower prior highs” Thursday. Its reaction was recovered Friday to retest 66.05 and possibly also extend the rally to its 67.15 target.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Friday with more aimless choppiness, albeit shallow, remained intact through the morning. A confirmed breakout still requires an eventual third higher close, but its immediate isolated overnight follow-through allows a pullback will develop first. Friday afternoon did probe fresh highs, and new high close on Friday often extends at least temporarily Monday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
More USD crashing and ECB’s policy statement took currencies to higher, as the Euro probed its 1.2465 resistance and trended higher Thursday to test 1.2575. It was consolidated, and afternoon comments triggered a USD surge that took the Euro back down to 1.2465. Closing back under 1.2435 would reverse the trend back down .

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher after Wednesday’s close came within $4 of testing the rally’s next higher objective at 1369.50. Weakness into Thursday’s open was recovered to  attack the morning’s high. A pullback could test 1345.00 without yet reversing the trend down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s rally extended higher after the close to within 1-2 cents of the 17.72 target. Overnight action didn’t probe any higher, and Thursday’s open was greeted in a pullback to 17.45. Its reaction recovered to attack the opening highs. Closing under Thursday’s low would reverse the trend down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another overnight probe of fresh lows was recovered into Thursday’s open for a morning bounce. The 149-03 bounce limit was attacked again. None of which changes the likelihood for continuing to probe lower, especially so long as the bounce limit holds.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs after Wednesday’s close extended higher overnight to satisfy the minimum 66.05 resistance on the way to the eventual 67.20 target. Gapping up to 66.60 was retraced to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s ~65.60 close. Probing higher intraday Thursday would confirm the uptrend remains in-play.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s strength didn’t exceed Tuesday night’s highs, or Wednesday’s intraday highs, having become likelier to produce a deeper corrective down before extending the rally.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Breaking out Tuesday from a 4-day range was well-rewarded overnight by gapping up sharply Wednesday above prior highs. The next objective’s resistance is 1.2465 where a correction down to 1.2325 would become likely.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Outperforming other metals on Tuesday had maintained the rally. Gapping up $15 to new highs at 1352.00 extended almost $6 higher intraday, next targeting 1368.50 so long as pullbacks now hold 1345.50 as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s false break under 16.95 was retraced but not rejected. That was done by recovering 16.11 overnight. Extending to gap up above 17.30 was extended to test 17.50 through the noon hour, next targeting 17.72 so long as 17.35 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding the 149-10 bounce limit after Tuesday’s bounce kept alive the downtrend, still likely to probe fresh lows. Trending down overnight gapped down to fresh lows Wednesday, still likely to probe lower.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and extending higher Wednesday fulfilled the minimum upside potential above the 64.20 buy signal to 65.35. Extending higher would next target 67.15, which remains in-play so long as 64.20 now holds as support.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Surging sharply to fresh highs after Tuesday’s close touched 3.62. Hovering there overnight only tested it, and Wednesday morning dipped back down to 3.46. That was still positive territory, a second consecutive higher close confirming Tuesday’s breakout, and now requiring at least one more eventual higher close — regardless of an interim pullback.