Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending up Friday had made Monday morning likely to trend up, too. It did. Into Monday afternoon, too. Friday’s rally didn’t emerge from a multi-session range, so it wasn’t a breakout. And Monday was not its confirmation. But the burden of proof is on sellers, as Thursday’s BOE monetary meeting approaches.

Gold Oct Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Oct which trades currently at a $3.40 premium to Aug… Dec is currently more active and trades at an additional $3 premium.] Probing higher Friday had rewarded Thursday holding the 1257.00 pullback limit, which is now the sell signal. Sunday night’s weakness didn’t extend down Monday as it ranged narrowly.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s close had gone out testing its pullback limit but not decisively holding it. Friday’s narrow ranging peaked pessimistically short of filling the gap at Thursday’s opening gap. Monday’s gap up to fresh highs neutralized its attraction ,but only ranged choppily around last week’s highs.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending higher Sunday night touched the 153-16 inflection point whose recovery would confirm Friday’s close above the 152-26 buy signal. But Monday morning reacted down instead of exploiting the overnight effort, a failure that could prove very bearish for missing the opportunity to bottom. Back under 152-06 would convert that disappointment into a new downleg.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not reacting down from 48.25 back under 47.25 had made the rally likely to test 50.10, which was attacked Sunday night to within a nickel. Back under 48.25 would now qualify as a sell signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Closing above the 2.95 buy signal had yet to extend higher. Friday had formed a Symmetrical Triangle that could break lower falsely before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Sunday night’s deep gap down to 2.90 extended to and through the 2.82 prior lows, well beyond the context of being only a false break.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still testing above the 1.1735-1.1755 objective Friday, and retesting its room for noise up to 1.1810. Another negative close would confirm the topping pattern, with a close under 1.1650 launching the reversal down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding the 1257.00 pullback limit enabled the rally to exceed its 1259.70 target, which is the new pullback limit. Closing under it would reverse the trend down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing Thursday around the 16.60 pullback limit avoided its failure. But Friday’s strength stopped short of filling Thursday’s 16.78 gap up, which should still be tested before any durable downleg could begin.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s weaker open was reversed back up sharply in reaction to the morning’s econ reports. The 152-26 buy signal was triggered on the way to attacking the 153-16 inflection within 1 quarter-point. Also for having filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s 153-24 close, there is no bullish reason to further delay the recovery from extending.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still avoiding a reversal down allowed Friday to continue firming toward the next higher objective at 50.10. Any interim dip has room down to 47.25 without reversing the trend down.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s restrained optimism above its 2.95 buy signal was constructive, but it can’t persist indefinitely without undermining the bullish pattern. So,m Friday morning’s ranging there .

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Room for noise above the retested 1.1735-1.1755 objective at 1.1808 was met overnight by follow-through from Wednesday’s FOMC news. Closing negative Thursday would be the proverbial “canary in a coal mine” warning that USD was about to improve against the basket that has been rallying to its detriment. Thursday’s negative close does suggest a top is forming.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging after Wednesday’s close in reaction to the FOMC news had fulfilled the 1259.70 target. It was probed overnight and Thursday morning to 1265.00. A pullback to 1254.00 held its 1257.00 pullback limit to avoid reversing down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s post-close FOMC news had triggered a surge to fresh highs that extended to fulfill the outstanding 16.70 target up to 16.81. Its reaction down to 16.54 tested the 16.60 pullback limit through the close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing overnight only touched the 153-16 buy signal. It was reversed in time to gap down Thursday which extended through the morning to probe Wednesday’s 152-08 low and range around it. Closing back above 152-26 would suggest a recovery is underway.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still no reversal at Thursday’s open, which now has room under 48.25 to 47.25 before signaling the trend has reversed down to retest the low’s consolidation. The rally until then is still considered only temporary, although it has held up and extended against a lot of “permanent low” talk.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having neutralized the gap back down to Monday’s close on Wednesday, Thursday’s EIA report avoided being greeted from a position of weakness. The reaction spiked up through the 2.95 buy signal, but the session only hovered above ita.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Piercing the 1.1650 sell signal overnight held through Wednesday morning ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Its reaction surged back up to Tuesday morning’s high, likely also t test 1.1755.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback extended overnight to test the rally’s prior objective of 1244.00 as support ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The reaction rallied back into positive territory at 1255.50, still targeting 1259.70.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A relatively shallow pullback overnight produced a gap down that ranged sideways throughout Wednesday’s session. Reaction to the FOMC policy statement surged back toward the week’s 16.60 high, still targeting 16.70.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing slightly lower overnight was extended deeper Wednesday morning. Repeating Tuesday’s deep drop was avoided, which can be bullish for the long bond’s behavior following a single session’s steep move. But the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement was not greeted from a position of strength, other than to have expended a lot of selling pressure very recently.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating around 48.25 overnight allowed a favorable reaction on Wednesday morning’s EIA report to attack 48.90. Its reaction down into negative territory filled the gap back to Monday’s 47.90 close and bounced back above 48.25.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
An overnight probe above the 2.95 buy signal was reversed to gap down Wednesday. Extending down through the morning filled the gap back down to Monday’s 2.89. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, except for there being no unfinished business below.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap up probed Friday’s 1.1718 high and the 1.1730 minimum objective of its retest. Trending back down nearly filled the gap back down to Monday’s 1.1677 close. Tuesday’s high or its gap didn’t require a retest, the objective of its retest was neutralized, and filling the gap below stopped optimistically short. Back under 1.1650 would seal a top and reverse the trend down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback from Monday’s gap up was extended a little deeper overnight to test 1249.00. Tuesday’s opening bounce was retraced for a retest of 1249.00. There’s room down to 1244.00 but not necessary to touch it before a fresh high fulfills the 1259.70 objective.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A steep overnight pullback to 16.22 was recovered into and out of Tuesday’s open and extended to a fresh high at 16.60. Its reaction down back under Monday’s high suggests that upside momentum is waning, and back under 16.20 would invalidate the 16.70 objective.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s reaction down from only attacking the 155-06 objective was not in itself bearish. But it didn’t prevent overnight weakness that gapped down Tuesday under 154-28 support and extended back down to test the original 153-00 buy signal. All ahead of the FOMC policy statement. Not already rallying Wednesday morning could require retesting the 151-18 low.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s bounce back up to 46.25 resistance extended higher into Tuesday’s opening test of 47.25, and higher through the morning. Back under 46.25 would signal that topping was resolving down. Otherwise, the next opportunity for launching a downleg is from 48.25.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending down to 2.88 Monday allowed the buy signal to be lowered to 2.95. Tuesday’s gap up tested it and hovered there throughout the morning. there is no bullish reason to further delay triggering it and extending higher.