Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s rally greeted Monday’s open testing the 1.1850 target. Price immediately reversed to probe negative territory down to 1.1793. The gap up above all prior highs is likely to be retested before a durable reversal down can gain traction.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap up to 1266.00 reversed down through the noon hour to test last week’s lower prior highs under 1259.00. The gap back to Friday’s 1256.50 close could be filled, too, but more important to maintaining the rally effort is to close above Monday’s high on Tuesday.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A pullback to 15.85 would have been optimal before completing a bottom, so rallying prematurely Sunday night can’t afford to much hesitation extending higher. And Monday morning already neutralized the nearest upside objective, filling the week-old gap up to 16.25. Closing higher Tuesday would form a bottom, and overcome the risk of a deeper pullback.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” reacted down Sunday night and gapped down Monday to test the 145-02 sell signal. That defined the lower-end, and keeps alive potential for a recovery above 145-25 to resume the rally.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trading up through 74.25 Sunday night was retraced to only fluctuate narrowly Monday. Coming so close to filling the gap back up to 74.82 doesn’t qualify as filling it, which remains likely before a durable reversal down would be credible.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s bounce neutralized the attraction to “higher prior lows,” which was retested Sunday night, But Monday’s intraday slide tested 2.82, whose break would confirm a deeper downleg is underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday back to Thursday’s 1.7735 open surged to fresh recovery highs at 1.1830. The 1.1850 objective is also in view so long as Monday doesn’t retrace all of Friday’s gain.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap down still held well above Thursda’s lows, but didn’t recover. It’s not the optimal pullback before launching the next upleg, but almost any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher anyway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely attacking Thursday’s high Friday morning reacted back down to attack Wednesday’s lows, which is still shallower than optimal before launching a credible rally leg. While a fresh high early Monday could extend, it probably wouldn’t be durable.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking up in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report was retraced back within Thursday’s range, almost entirely to fill the gap back down to 145-16. Friday’s gap up was within Thursday’s range, too, so there is not inhibition to prevent reacting down through the week-long range’s lower end to 144-08.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Retesting the 72.80 pullback limit Friday morning was recovered to hold its test, still being likely to fill Tuesday’s 74.80 opening gap and possibly retest the 75.30 target.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s session didn’t rally, and only slightly probed under Thursday’s low. Twice. The recent break and the position of weakness greeting the EIA report weren’t rejected, making the pattern likely to resolve down if not already recovering Sunday night.