Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already firming into Friday’s open held its gains to test Thursday’s 1.1975 high. That’s the beginning of resistance up to 1.2025 whose recovery would signal a bounce underway, if not also the trend reversing up (i.e. bottom).

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday to 1326.00 was $2-3 short of the corrective bounce potential. But reversing down intraday back under Thursday’s highs filled the gap back down to natural support at Thursday’s close. The reversal also helped to avoid a second consecutive higher close that otherwise could have prolonged the rally.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh recovery highs tested the 16.80 corrective bounce target Friday morning, probing it and then reversing back under it. Holding its resistance would help to maintain the corrective bounce pattern, but reversing down immediately wouldn’t be necessary.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight touched the 143-19 buy signal Friday morning, and held it. Reversing back down tested the 143-07 sell signal, and fluctuated around it. Having tested both, their support and resistance should be weakened sufficiently to break durably in either direction.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another narrowly ranging session at the highs helps to entrench the uptrend still targeting 74.10. But another narrowly ranging session without yet extending the rally does start making a temporary corrective dip likelier. There’s room down to 70.25 before suggesting anything deeper underway.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly and essentially flat on Friday didn’t reject Thursday’s rally back to the 2.82 corrective bounce’s high. But neither was Thursday’s rally confirmed, so no higher close is required. That said, another fresh high close at this stage of the pattern would still be more bullish than bearish.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Surging at Thursday’s open wasn’t capable of extending because a bottom had not formed. But retracing Thursday’s opening surge to test the prior two-day range as support does form a bottom. Now closing above 1.1977-1.2025 would signal that momentum is reversing up.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still not resuming the decline remained vulnerable to a bigger detour. Thursday’s open gapped up through the 1316.00 bounce limit and extended higher to test 1323.00. A pullback held 1316.00 and recovered back to 1323.00. It’s still likely only a detour, but a detour targeting a test of its 1329.00 bounce limit.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday had outperformed by probing fresh highs up to 16.65. Thursday gapped up to Wednesday’s high to attack 16.80, which the balance of the session hovered under. Any higher would target a test of 16.95.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap down under the 142-07 sell signal had not extended intraday, remaining vulnerable to at least a corrective bounce. Thursday’s 30-year auction went off without difficulty, but a bounce held tests of 142-07. A fresh low on Friday would be credible for extending down into and out of the weekend. Otherwise, Thursday’s failure to confirm Wednesday’s breakout leaves open open potential to trigger the 143-19 buy signal.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly at the recovery highs Thursday allows the pullback limit to be raised to 70.25, while the 74.10 target remains intact.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, but that didn’t prevent surging back up to attack last Tuesday’s 2.82 highs. A second consecutive higher close on Friday would get every benefit of the doubt for launching a new upleg. Otherwise, Thursday’s surge should be retraced quickly to confirm downside momentum remains intact.