Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A fresh low in reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC was recovered back into the Tue-Wed range. That was maintained Thursday. Any initial strength Friday would be credible for having formed a bottom .

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up to test 1319.00 had probed above Wednesday’s post-close FOMC reaction, which had held under the 1316.00 bounce limit. Closing back under 1316.00 Thursday keeps alive the corrective bounce. Other than a possible favorable knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, there is no excuse for delaying its end and resolving down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s post-close reaction to FOMC was retraced overnight, but then retested at Thursday gap up to test 16.60. Closing back at or under Wednesday’s 16.45 high keeps alive near-term downside momentum, but not with delay.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Thursday to 143-20 briefly filled Monday’s gap and probed its high up to 143-30 but closed back under Monday’s resistance. Having also hovered exclusively in positive territory, that’s “ineffectual optimism.” Friday’s Employment Situation report is not being greeted from a position of strength, other than being above the 143-07 sell signal.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
There would be nothing bullish about any further backing-and-filling Thursday, or to any further delay of resolving up. Thursday tried by firming back up to 68.60, and still can’t afford to delay further improvement.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down to test 2.70 Thursday and holding 2.73 as resistance helps to confirm the interim bounce was only a correction, and that downside potential to 2.52 remains intact.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows under 1.2000 almost prevented another opportunity to start forming a bottom. But the afternoon’s recovery back into Tuesday’s range makes immediately upside follow-through credible for extending initially to 1.2120-1.2160.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up held under its 1316.00 bounce limit to maintain the downside momentum of Tuesday’s confirmed breakout still requiring an eventual third lower close, and probably to extend down to 1294.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday filled the gap back to Monday’s 16.40 highs, but didn’t threaten to recover the 16.45 sell signal. An eventual third lower close is required to fulfill the confirmed breakout.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing lower overnight was recovered to continue fluctuating intraday Wednesday around the 143-07 sell signal, whose break Thursday would greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday morning’s weakness didn’t repeat Tuesday’s attack on the 66.80 pullback limit where a snap back up could launch a rally to fresh highs. A bounce back into positive territory must extend higher without delay to avoid making fresh lows down to 66.35 likely.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s rally had to contain the corrective bounce’s peak to maintain the confirmed breakout pattern which is still awaiting at least a third lower close under 2.72 Wednesday’s gap down did weaken intraday, greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a mixed position..

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The Dollar squeeze continued Tuesday, so the Euro’s inside day Monday resolved down as was expected. The gap down to 12061 will need to be filled from above, but the next opportunity for a bottom would be to fill it after probing back above Monday’s 1.2148 high.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s post-open bounce had failed to gain traction, and now Tuesday’s reversal to fresh lows has confirmed the breakout from a multi-session range. At least an eventual third lower close is required. Meanwhile, the bigger picture is targeting 1294.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing Friday under 16.45 wasn’t rejected by Monday’s bounce. The decline resumed overnight and extended sharply lower through Tuesday morning to fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fulfilling the corrective bounce’s likely objectives Monday up to 143-07/143-26 allows overnight weakness to gap down Tuesday and to probe under the 143-07 sell signal that would be triggered through the close. Fluctuating around it intraday was still testing it, and almost any initial weakness Wednesday would be credible for extending down.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s surge was already retraced to “lower prior highs” of last week’s consolidation. Resuming the rally required ending the pullback there, but it didn’t. Fresh lows Tuesday may be on their way to probe under Monday morning’s 67.15 lows to the 66.75-66.80 support that was being attacked with the news originally hit.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s drop was retraced a little Monday back above the 2.76 bounce limit. Tuesday’s gap up was retraced to fluctuate around 2.78-2.82. Friday’s confirmed break still requires at least an eventual third lower close, which would be difficult if this week’s bounce isn’t rejected immediately Wednesday.