Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s gap down to test 1.2100 was recovered through the morning to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s 1.2145 close. Friday’s open is under all prior lows, so it will need to be filled before a durable recovery would be credible. An immediate interim bounce has room up to 1.2215.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s 1316.00 low wasn’t probed Friday, which bounced within Thursday’s range up to 1325.00. There’s room up to 1329.00 while still being likely to resolve down, next targeting 1294.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, which trades at a 5-cent premium to May]… Firming initially Friday touched 16.55 resistance before reversing back down to the 16.45 sell signal. At least a probe lower is now obligatory, while a confirmed break would launch a new downleg. Closing back above 16.75-16.80 — preferably after an intraday probe under 16.45 — would trap this recent weakness and launch a new upleg.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce was extended overnight to test the 142-25 buy signal, which was probed Friday up to 143-09. Further upside potential up to 143-17 and 144-28 — or just closing under 142-06 — would still be likely to resolve down to 141-04.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extremely narrow ranging around unchanged Friday is already unattractive for trading. Meanwhile, the pattern is developing at its range’s midpoint, making it even more difficult to anticipate the next move’s direction.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Far from being confirmed by a second consecutive higher close, Thursday’s fresh high close reacted down overnight to gap down Friday at 2.80 well under prior highs. Extending down to 2.77 only threatened the 2.76 sell signal, which must still trigger to reinstate the distributive pattern.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s ECB policy statement triggered a blip-down to 1.2190 that was reversed into positive territory up to 1.2255. But that has eventually reversed down sharply to fresh lows attacking 1.2140. This is still not an accumulative pattern, so any bounce is likely to fail.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Volatility around Thursday’s ECB events firmed to test 1327.00, only to resolve down and attack 1316.00. Closing lower Friday would target 1294.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite having held 16.55 as support Wednesday, Thursday morning dipped to the 16.40 sell signal without triggering it. Closing above 16.75 would signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce to 142-20 easily held under the 142-25 bounce limit that keeps alive downside potential next targeting 141-04. .

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having tested the lower-end of the past week’s range on Wednesday, Thursday gapped up, but the balance of the session only fluctuated around unchanged. Bounces have room up to 68.90 without yet signaling a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s close above 2.78 resistance at the recent range’s 2.82 upper-end was extended to fresh highs at 2.84 in reaction to Thursday’s EIA report. That’s officially a breakout, awaiting confirmation or not by a second consecutive higher close Friday.