Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s dip back into last month’s 1.2260-1.2300 range was extended to its lower-end Thursday. Still overlapping Wednesday’s 1.2275 close does undermine whether Thursday produced a fresh low close that would fulfill the confirmed breakout.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The next lower objective at 1312.50 down to 1309.00 reacted up Thursday to test 1324.50, avoiding a close under 1312.50 that would have put into play much lower objectives .

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s low came within a nickel of touching the next lower objective at 16.15. Its reaction tested  16.60 but didn’t reverse the trend up, so 16.15 remains outstanding.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s 143-20 low could fulfill the required third lower close in-play from the recent confirmed breakout. The 144-12 prior relative low shouldn’t be recovered first.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 61.50 target that was met and held Thursday was probed Thursday down to 60.60. Back above 62.30 would launch a new rally leg. Otherwise, extending to fresh lows would next target 59.80 and 57.25.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still ranging narrowly at pullback lows around 2.70 Thursday doesn’t prevent a close back above 2.86 from launching a recovery.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday immediately filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 1.2366 open. Rather than bounce to form a low, the balance of the morning trended down relentlessly to probe 3-week old “lower prior highs” down to 1.2270. A second consecutive close Thursday under 1.2725-1.2730 would be difficult to recover before probing sharply lower.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not recovering Tuesday’s reversal session almost immediately Wednesday had made the pattern likelier to extend down intraday. Its fresh lows at 1313.50 touched January’s low, suggesting that the hesitation here is only obligatory and likely to resolve down. Closing under 1312.50 would next target 1291.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already being well out of proximity to recover at least 16.95, Tuesday’s intraday reversal was likely to extend Wednesday. Closing under 16.40 is next targeting 16.15.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Relatively narrow ranging overnight gave way through Wednesday morning to attack Monday’s 144-12 low down to at least 144-17.

A new low close is still required.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s sideways ranging, instead of a recovering 64.20, made any new weakness likely to test 61.50. Wednesday morning’s slide probed it during the noon hour down to 61.25. The pattern can’t tolerate much delay in reversing up to reinstate the 67.15 target.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday fluctuated around Tuesday’s 2.69 low, still not attacking the 2.86 buy signal but also not extending down.