Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 1, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. The pre-open Retail Sales has been surprising recently. But the post-open ISM tends to inhibit price action before its release, which then generates a reaction.
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The confirmed breakout had resumed already, and the decline persisted overnight to extend deeper intraday Thursday to 1.1287. The minimum objective to fill the gap back down to 1.1280 is approaching, and should at least be probed.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness opened at or under the 1308.50 prior low (basis Jun) which uptrending momentum had needed to hold. Collapsing under it creates a breakout day that would be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close. Flat or higher into the weekend would maintain potential for being a false break. Optimally, Thursday’s intraday break would be recovered entirely overnight to at least hover Friday — which is not an unusual rejection — but would be difficult considering Thursday’s sizable drop. Closing under 1291.00 would signal the decline is extending.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s close under uptrending support was confirmed by a lower close Thursday. A sharply lower close, that expended a lot of selling pressure to retest 15.00 prior lows. Meanwhile, Thursday’s break was the first under 15.28 prior lows, so at least an intraday probe of fresh lows is likely, and probably down to 14.75-14.80, but not necessarily a negative close. Structurally, recovering to close positive from any negative dip would be bullish.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still probing fresh highs overnight up to 150-21, although Thursday’s intraday highs held 150-09. The shallowness at this stage of the rally is sufficient confirmation that optimism remains alive and well. Pullbacks should hold 149-10 to avoid a deeper interim pullback.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing uptrending support at 58.75 Thursday and the recent 58.25 prior lows held, avoiding the 58.00 sell signal. Ultimately recovering to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close neutralized its attraction above, so delayed strength Friday would remain vulnerable to reversing down more deeply.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already having bounced intraday Wednesday to touch the 2.75 (basis May) higher prior lows, Thursday’s dip was able to neutralize the attraction at Wednesday’s 2.72 gap down. It held, allowing the setup to resolve differently than the prior outstanding gap below. Closing back above 2.77 would signal the trend reversing up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 29, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. The PMI result is released privately to institutional subscribers several minutes before being released publicly, usually to the same effect. Consumer Sentiment need not react similarly.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
9:25 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
March Top Madness… follow-up
In my methodology, the bearish trend reversal can be invalidated by two consecutive closes above 2827 (basis June ES futures). My last update’s “caveat” remains valid, that it always seems darkest before the dawn. And, more on point, bull markets have a way of stepping right up to the brink, and then reversing straight up. Avoiding this precipice would suggest resuming the rally to much higher highs.
Meanwhile, you’re welcome to a front row seat in my live chaRTroom to learn more about my methodology’s inputs, formulae and observations… CLICK HERE NOW.
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Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s correction day had resolved back down to Friday’s lows Tuesday. Fresh lows developed overnight into Wednesday’s open, suggesting the decline has resumed, targeting prior lows.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight was retraced into Wednesday’s open and extended down to 1308.00 support. The rally can’t tolerate much if any further deterioration any lower.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s retest of 15.27 represents a maximum pullback limit before trading any lower would invalidate the upside potential without yet triggering a new signal.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already probing higher overnight to 150-00 after Tuesday’s shallow pullback held 149-00, suggests the rally intends to extend much higher, so long as 149-00 continues to hold as support.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Only filling the gap back up to 60.00 Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s EIA allowed its negative knee-jerk reaction to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 58.90 close. Which held, along with the same uptrending support that had defined Friday and Monday’s lows, and for which there was no bullish reason to revisit at this stage.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight weakness tested the 2.73 gap down that had yet to be filled from above. Rather than react up, Wednesday’s open gapped down, which greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness that would likely cause an initially favorable reaction up to fail.