Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s confirmation of Monday’s breakout made Wednesday’s gap up premature for resuming the rally, as at least one more lower close under 1.1960 is now required.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying sharply to test 1328.50 on the China / Treasuries news was isolated as Wednesday’s regular open had retraced already back under Friday’s 1324.00 prior highs. A fresh high close would still be credible for extending, but now another test of 1308.85 would be much likelier to reverse down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up immediately reversed down to test unchanged as the China /Treasuries news wore off. Closing back above 17.20 would still be credible for extending higher, but closing under 16.95 would be that much likelier to reverse the trend down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesdays’ sharp break under 151-16 to new lows was extended down sharply overnight on the China /Treasuries news. Despite rallying out of the 149-03 open, just closing negative has confirmed Tuesday’s breakout and now requires an eventual third lower close. Meanwhile, the gap down under all prior lows also wants to be filled before a recovery would be credible.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping to new recovery highs Wednesday was resisted by 63.52 as the session hovered narrowly. Pullbacks now have room down to 62.15 to maintain the 64.25-64.75 target.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight to attack 3.00 didn’t prevent Wednesday’s flat open or further retracing back down to the 2.86 buy signal. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength for the breakout, with restrained optimism for having corrected back to support. A second consecutive higher confirming close would have been stronger, but a favorable reaction or recovery from an unfavorable reaction is likely.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down again Tuesday without recovering intraday confirms Monday’s break under the 1.2060 sell signal. Bouncing first to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 1.2100 close would be likely to reverse back down more substantially. But first extending down to lower prior highs at 1.1950 would have a better chance at launching a new rally leg.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s first session not to probe a prior session’s high was followed by overnight weakness that attacked the 1308.85 sell signal. Extending lower without delay could also accelerate into a down-crash.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness retested Monday’s probe of last week’s lows, actually touching the 16.95 sell signal, which held to avoid triggering a reversal.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already sitting at or under uptrending pivotal support for the second time since it had formed, its immediate rejection at Tuesday’s open was the only bullish path higher. But overnight weakness suggested otherwise, and the morning dipped sharply back to and through last month’s 150-14 prior low to at least 150-06.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
There was no bullish reason to retest 61.10 as support, or to further delay resuming the rally targeting 64.25-64.75. The overnight blip-up to 62.55 wasn’t retested immediately, but eventually Tuesday morning start probing above it. Extending higher through the afternoon attacked 63.25 .

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s dip had filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, so that a close above 2.86 would be that much more reliable to launching a durable rally leg. Tuesday morning’s brief tests eventually probed more than a nickel higher to trigger the buy signal.