Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s dip to the make-or-break 1.1790 level did neither Thursday morning, except hover there narrowly. Although, that does offer confirmation to the level’s relevance.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday was not to be equated with stability, as Thursday’s $8 gap down to fresh lows illustrates. There is potential for holding 1253.00, which was attacked to within $1. But Friday’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of weakness. That doesn’t dismiss potential for an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up, but it limits its potential to maintain a rally.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s break lower from a two-day range qualified as a breakout, which Wednesday’s lower close confirmed and required an eventual third lower close. Thursday’s gap down fulfilled it. But Friday’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of weakness, still targeting 15.65-15.70.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The likelihood for backing-and-filling had probed just the upper-end of its 153-14/153-22 pullback limit overnight, but had recovered to open above 154-00. That was repeated intraday after consolidating narrowly through the morning, but deeper, testing the pullback limit’s lower-end down to 153-09. Closing under 153-10 would reverse the trend back down, albeit vulnerable to reacting favorably on Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday was still an “inside day” contained within Wednesday’s range. It was resisted above by what had been the 56.80 pullback limit whose week-old support test had launched a rally back to the high. Holding 56.80 keeps alive potential down to 55.45-55.55.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength didn’t prevent trending down overnight. Gapping down 4 cents to fresh lows extended down intraday to a full dime below the decline’s 2.87 target that had held Tuesday. Any recovery must begin by recovering 2.90.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending down throughout Wednesday further under the 1.1860 sell signal that triggered Tuesday went on to test 1.1790, which must break lower to confirm the recent upleg has been broken.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat, narrow ranging Wednesday may appear to be stability, but it is not accumulation, which is the only way to avoid printing lower lows. So, any initial strength Thursday would be likely to resolve down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s narrow range may avoid confirming the breakout’s momentum to the downside, but it doesn’t prevent further downside Thursday. Early strength would be likely to fail.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday to and through Friday’s 154-06 prior high and extending to 154-18 was maintained through the afternoon. Pullbacks must now hold 153-10 to maintain the upside momentum.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday from 57.40 to the prior pullback limit of 56.80 needed to hold to still qualify as only a temporary pullback. But the session extended down to attack 56.10, now leaving a gap back up to 57.40 that must be recovered to reinstate upside targets.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s test of the 2.87 target firmed intraday and overnight for Wednesday’s open to gap up and test 2.96. Reacting down filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 2.91 close, leaving no unfinished business below. Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from a position of weakness, but would have been a position of strength to close above Tuesday’s 2.93 high.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing under 1.1860 support Tuesday extended down through the noon hour. A second consecutive lower close on Wednesday would confirm the break.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday night’s narrow range broke lower into Tuesday’s open and trended down sharply through the morning to attack 1263.00.  The decline’s momentum remains intact until recovering 1285.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging overnight gapped down slightly into Tuesday’s open, and broke lower through the morning to test 16.05. Back above 1640 would signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, 15.75 is in-play.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s inability to rally off of 153-00 and simultaneous ability to hold it as support, greeted Tuesday after overnight weakness under it. The open held 152-18 as support and rallied well into postive territory testing 153-20. This pattern is likely to follow-through the following session.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s dip back down to the 57.40 buy signal probed slightly lower overnight, but Tuesday had little excuse to delay recovering from the pullback to keep alive higher targets.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already gapping down at Tuesday’s open extended lower to fulfill the 2.87 target. There is no active buy signal, but the timing is appropriate to bounce so that Thursday’s EIA report can be met from a position of strength.