Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce to the original 1.1930 sell signal had reacted down Friday morning to touch the 1.1860 sell signal, but bounced back up to test 1.1930.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Spiking up Friday morning in reaction to the Flynn news probed back above Wednesday’s 1288.00 close. Its recovery would try rejecting Thursday’s break under 1280.50-1283.50. But extending up to 1292.50 didn’t prevent reversing back down to 1282.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would have confirmed, but closing under 1288.00 would target fresh lows under 1273.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bounce potential to 16.60 was touched by the spike up in reaction to the Flynn news. With or without a bigger bounce up to 16.80, developing a bottoming pattern must still spend some time backing-and-filling.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s late bounce touched 153-00 (to within 1 tick) and avoided closing under it, which would have targeted a retest of 152-04 or lower. Following-through overnight gapped up to 153-20 and extended sharply through 154-00 to 155-09. The afternoon dipped back down toward 154-00, but little or not further backing-and-filling should be necessary before extending the rally to fresh highs.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight rallying off of the 57.40 buy signal gapped up 75 cents Friday morning, and then extended another $1. The gap back up to last Friday’s close was attacked to within a dime before reversing down toward the 57.90 open. Stopping pessimistically short of the prior suggests it will be probed by more than just a little, perhaps up to the rally’s 61.05 target.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing overnight gapped up to test 3.10-3.12 resistance which must hold through the close to maintain the decline’s 2.87 target.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing lower overnight didn’t ensure finally triggering the 1.1860 sell signal that was still being tested during the two prior sessions. In fact, Thursday morning rallied up to the 1.1930 sell signal that had triggered Monday. Its resistance held, and closing back under 1.1860 would still signal the trend reversing down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s break under the 1288.00 sell signal extended down a little deeper overnight and through Thursday morning, accelerating through 1283.50 and 1280.50 to 1273.00. Next targeted is 1269.00, so long as bounces now hold 1278.00 as resistance.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Further weakness overnight and Thursday morning extended under the 16.60 objective met Wednesday. Stopping optimistically short of the 16.80 objective previously had ensured a deeper test of the next attraction. And now fresh lows are being probed. This is not a pattern that reverses up sharply, not durably, so no buy signal is expected until next week.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Several overnight probes under 153-00 support weren’t very promising for recovering 153-20 to resume the rally. Indeed, the morning broke sharply lower to 152-04, targeting at least “lower prior highs” down to 151-06.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already bouncing overnight above the 57.40 buy signal, Thursday morning dipped back down to the 56.80 pullback limit that had held Wednesday. It was tested throughout the balance of the session, still needing to hold for the pullback to have ended.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back down Thursday under 3.12 was the only way to reject Wednesday’s close above 3.16. Extending down sharply intraday to test 3.01 already indicates the trend reversing down, attracted to gaps outstanding below, and to a fresh low targeting 2.87.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s probing of the 1.1860 sell signal still wasn’t resolved Wednesday, despite probing a little lower overnight and generally remaining under the signal all day.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Upside momentum had become jeopardized by two consecutive sessions holding the recently filled 1295.50 gap instead of extending through it. Interim weakness was not exploiting its test of support. The consequence was Wednesday’s break lower, to and through the 1285.50 sell signal. A second consecutive lower close Thursday under 1280.50 would confirm a bigger downleg underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding last week’s test of the 17.11 buy signal had reacted down to 16.95 support, and then to almost fill an outstanding gap at 16.70 to within 2 cents. Stopping optimistically short of the objective suggested that testing the next lower objective at 16.50 would be done more aggressively. Breaking sharply lower Wednesday morning extended to fresh lows at 16.45.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeated failures to extend intraday bounces had continually held 154-00 as support. Its eventual break could have bottomed at 153-20, but Wednesday opened there and extended down to test 153-00. Back above 153-20 would signal a pullback had ended, and recovering 154-00 and higher would be only a formality. Closing under 153-00 would signal a much deeper downleg underway.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s failure to recover 58.15 compounded with Monday’s similar failure, keeping alive the pullback’s downside potential. Weakness after Tuesday’s API and Wednesday morning’s EIA extended the pullback to test “lower prior highs” and to fill a gap down to 56.75. Closing back above 57.40 would signal the pullback had ended and momentum is reversing up.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again Wednesday probed the 3.12-3.16 bounce limit. Closing higher suggests the lows won’t be retested before a more substantial rally develops. Unless confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Thursday, the likelier scenario would reverse down first to retest the lows and an outstanding objective at 2.77.