Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still hovering at recent highs ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events. Avoiding the 1.1405 sell signal required almost literally exploding higher to 1.1525, which was the reaction to FOMC. Upside momentum remains intact above 1.1500, and momentum reverses down under 1.1465.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s choppy sideways ranging repeated Wednesday ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events, but surged through last week’s highs to 1316.00 in reaction. The rally has likely resumed, so long as the post-close surge isn’t rejected overnight.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s session was greeted by overnight weakness, but the recent range held ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. Surging in reaction tested recent highs up to 15.55, needing a second consecutive higher close Thursday to confirm the trend up has resumed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
After Tuesday held a test of the 145-16 sell signal as expected, Wednesday’s open gapped back up to the 146-00 buy signal. Neither end of the corridor between signals was broken in time to greet Wednesday’s FOMC events from a position of strength or of weakness. The reaction did immediately recover 146-00 and extend to 147-00. Still, a second consecutive higher close on Thursday would confirm the uptrend had resumed.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing under 59.40 Tuesday after at least touching 59.65 intraday had signaled upside momentum had ended. But room down to the 58.50 reversal signal was used for overnight weakness ahead of Wednesday’s EIA report, which triggered a surge up to fresh highs at 60.20. Its reaction down to 59.50 was recovered back to the high, signaling the uptrend remains intact.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s surge above the 2.84 buy signal may not have been confirmed by a second consecutive higher close on Wednesday, but closing above 2.84 again did offer the next best degree of confidence that the trend has reversed up. .

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight strength again attacked 1.1450 while overlapping Monday’s highs, allowing the sell signal to be raised to 1.1405 from 1.1380. The timing no longer tolerates delaying a break lower.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up above Monday’s highs pierced last week’s intraday highs, but stopped short of the overnight attack on 1312.00. The restrained optimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up was still contained within Monday’s range and fluctuating narrowly around the 15.40 buy signal. Almost any initial strength on Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
If not still overlapping the 146-00 buy signal into Tuesday’s open, then the few ticks of strength at least lacked momentum. Which the morning exploited by sending price back down to the 145-16 sell signal. But already having delayed the reaction down, only now testing the sell signal should hold as support and avoid triggering through the close. Regardless, back above 146-00 would tolerate no delay in extending higher if valid.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs pierced the 59.50 room for noise above 59.25 that must be recovered through the close to confirm the rally’s momentum remains intact. Having tested 59.50, closing back under 59.25 would not greet Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength. But a downleg would be signaled back under 58.40.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Surging overnight through the 2.84 buy signal pierced prior highs by 1 penny up to 2.89. A second consecutive higher close would confirm a new upleg is underway.