Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming slightly further Tuesday morning filled the gap back up to Thursday’s 1.1685 close. There’s still room up to 1.1735 or 1.1760, but the decline remains likely to resume.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking bounce’s the 1280.50 objective Monday reversed down Tuesday morning to attack the original 1266.50 pullback limit. Holding its test would maintain potential for bottoming without first probing new lows. The open’s gap down does suggest that sellers are weak-handed.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering at Monday’s highs into Tuesday’s open was soon reversed down to attack the pullback’s original 16.60 low, presumably on the way to fulfilling the 16.50 target below.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming further overnight almost touched the 152-20 bounce limit that encompasses the “higher prior lows” tests and allows the downside momentum to remain intact.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s test of the 54.15 objective was maintained overnight above the 53.88 pullback limit for the next higher objective at 55.70 to remain intact. Tuesday extended to fresh highs above 54.50, greeting the post-close API and Wednesday’s EIA reports from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Avoiding a fresh low on Monday only made the inevitable likely to be more substantial or durable. Gapping down Tuesday under Monday’s low extended to fresh lows at 2.88.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Bouncing Sunday night from last week’s two-day ECB plunge is likely only a correction, with a more substantial consequence to last week’s break still in-play. Meanwhile, the gap back to Thursday’s 1.1685 close is an attraction, perhaps up to 1.1735.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further from Friday’s test of 1266.50 on Monday helps to confirm that the 3-week old low’s retest has held. Its 1280.50 was attacked, and closing above it would start to signal a new upleg underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s bounce firmed a little further Monday, testing “higher prior lows” at 16.65, and still likely to resolve down for a test of 16.50.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday tested one set of “higher prior lows” at 151-18 and extended higher intraday to attack the next set at 152-08. But at least one more fresh low close remains likely, so long as the bounce doesn’t recover 152-20.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing the next higher objective at 54.15 before Monday’s open, its intraday retest must hold above 53.88 through the close to maintain the upside momentum.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec from Nov] Friday’s new lows made Monday likely to probe lower at some point intraday, regardless of when or if maintained through the close. That was avoided, undermining near-term bottoming potential. A test of “higher prior lows” 3.01-3.05 before filling the gap back down to Monday’s open would also keep alive the bottoming potential.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s ECB-plunge to and through 1.1760 to attack 1.1680 extended lower overnight. Gapping down Friday resumed the decline to test 1.1605.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing only slightly lower overnight tested 1264.00 before bouncing back above was able to hold 1266.50 through Friday morning, which starts to suggest the 3-week old low’s retest is holding.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending lower overnight gapped down Friday to test 16.60, still having potential to also test 16.50, despite the post-open reaction filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 16.80 close — if not also because the gap-fill held.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s open touched Wednesday’s 150-10 low and reacted up in reaction to a favorable Fed headline. Thursday’s 151-12 high was attacked, still likely to produce a new trend low close before bottoming again.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight continued to slow-play the ongoing firming, stopping pessimistically short of the outstanding minimum requirement to retest 53.00. Post-open action steepened the slope and extended through Friday morning to attack the next higher objective at 54.15.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending down overnight tested the 2.96 sell signal’s 2.82-2.84 target. Gapping down Friday to 2.82 extended lower to attack the week-old 2.77 low. Now that the target is met, I’ll be rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a 15-cent premium to Nov, and has developed a deeper relative decline to fresh lows.