Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still firming into Friday’s open after filling one gap above at 1.1855 with potential to fill another at 1.1900. But closing first back under 1.1830 would signal the decline has resumed.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Slightly firmer overnight was still short of the 1298.50 buy signal that really should have triggered already Thursday to avoid retesting Wednesday night’s 1280.50 low.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing slightly lower into Friday’s open kept alive the 16.60 attraction, which the balance of the session reversed down to attack within a nickel. Meanwhile, not yet fulfilling 16.60 has made 16.50 likely to be tested, too.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Shallow overnight weakness held Thursday’s confirmation lows ahead of Friday’s open. Although Wednesday’s break requires at least one more eventual lower close, producing it after closing above 153-14 would be from a position of strength likely to recover quickly.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging under the 51.55 sell signal held Thursday’s low, still not triggering it and suggesting that Thursday’s gap up would be retested before a credible downleg could begin.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Filling the gap Thursday back down to Tuesday’s close had robbed the reversal of its momentum. But only ranging narrowly Friday did not replace that with upside momentum, leaving intact the 2.93 target below.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having fulfilled its objective to test 1.1745 on Tuesday, extending the decline Wednesday morning to attack the next lower objective at 1.1760 was reversed to close higher on the day. That extended slightly into Thursday’s open, which ranged narrowly through the day up to 1.1850. .

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight fulfilled potential to test 1280.50. The probe under Wednesday’s lows was recovered by Thursday’s open. Ranging sideways all day doesn’t equate to stability, and another intraday fresh low is likely so long as 1298.50 isn’t recovered.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight touched the prior low at 16.70 and bounced ahead of Thursday’s open. The reaction didn’t become a recovery that would otherwise hold 17.00, still likely to test at least 16.60.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Finally testing 153-14 Wednesday trended down intraday to avoid forming a bottom. Extending down overnight gapped down to test fresh lows Thursday attacking 152-00. A second consecutive lower close from the multi-session range at 154-30 requires an eventual third lower close. In this pattern, immediately fulfilling the lower requirement would be bearish, where bouncing first would allow a bottom to begin forming.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Surging before Thursday’s open gapped up above prior sessions’ highs to 52.65 resistance. Resistance triggered a reversal down under prior sessions’ lows to test 51.25. The outside day left unfinished business above at Thursday’s opening gap. Testing it before extending down to 51.65 would be bearish.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a 9-cent premium to Oct]… Greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of weakness didn’t prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. But that was after having gapped down from Wednesday’s close at 3.07 resistance. And the knee-jerk up snapped back down to fill the gap from Tuesday’s 3.01 close. Now a bottom can form by closing above 3.08, targeting 3.17 and higher.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday had fulfilled the decline’s requirement to completely retrace the last upleg from 1.1845. Wednesday extended the decline anyway, coming attacking its 1.1760 next lower target.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing Tuesday off of 1298.50 “lower prior highs” was followed naturally Wednesday by gapping down through 1293.50 prior lows and probing lower to attack 1285.00. Attractions down to 1280.00 are in-play so long as Thursday doesn’t close positive.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight extended down Wednesday morning to attack prior lows, next targeting the 16.50 area.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeatedly holding 154-30 resistance finally reacted down Tuesday night, and aggressively. Gapping down to the 153-14 prior low probed ranged choppily intraday at or under last week’s low, needing to hold for the retest for a bottom to form.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
API and EIA weren’t greeted from the position of strength of a confirmed breakout. But reactions to the news items didn’t extend down, suggesting that Monday’s breakout intends to try extending again even without confirmation.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday created a gap back down to Tuesday’s close that will want to be retested. Trending up so early to already test the 2.98 bounce limit suggests its test is sponsored by weak hands. Thursday’s EIA is not being greeted from a position of strength, so a knee-jerk reaction up would have to close aboev 3.02 to be credible for extending higher.