Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s spike up to 1.1989 on the Employment Situation report fulfilled the 61.8% retracement of the drop from Tuesday’s high to Thursday morning’s low. It was retraced entirely and then reversed down much closer to Thursday’s low, near the 1.1854 pullback limit that keeps the door open to rallying out of the weekend.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The favorable reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report quickly probed above Tuesday night’s 1332.00 high whose near-term retest had been signaled Thursday. Its reaction down to 1321.00 held as support, avoiding a close under 1318.50 that would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s open spiked up to pierce Tuesday night’s 17.75 high. Its reaction down was recovered and extended slightly to suggest the 17.90 target remains in-play.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slightly lower lows fulfilled the 155-04 pullback objective down to 154-30. Holding 155-04 through the close allows a near0term retest of Tuesday night’s 156-28 high.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s recovery from having attacked the 45.50 target overnight was not extended Friday, which undermines the recovery attempt’s sponsorship. But its initial dip did hold. Closing under 46.50 is still necessary to confirm the decline’s momentum remains intact.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-lower overnight resolved soon after Friday’s open in a surge through Thursday’s 3.04 high to fresh highs attacking 3.10. The second consecutive higher close confirms a breakout, suggesting the bottoming pattern we’ve been monitoring is now resolving.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s gap down to and through the 1.1945 sell signal could be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close, despite it being unlikely. Thursday’s pre-open probe lower in reaction to negative ECB comments tried making it likelier, which the afternoon’s favorable US Treasury comments retraced back up to unchanged and avoided confirming the sell signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night’s “flash crash” was recovered entirely back above the 1310.50 pullback limit and then reversed up through an adjusted 1317.00 buy signal. The 1319.50 pullback limit was recovered, too, essentially targeting a retest of Tuesday night’s 1332.00 high.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Thursday retraced 61.8% of Tuesday’s intraday reversal from its 17.69 opening gap, a gap that still needs to be filled as it was above all prior highs.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow sideways ranging Thursday continued waiting out the market’s stability, barely reacting down to the lack of demand for a “flight-to-safety.” .

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight came within a dime of the 45.50 target but reacted up sharply to 47.35 Thursday morning. Back under 46.40 through Friday’s close may be the only way to resume the decline.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA was not greeted from a position of strength, but the pre-announcement dip to 2.91 was reversed back up sharply through 2.98 to fresh highs at 3.05. This suggests the bottom is complete, awaiting confirmation from a second consecutive higher close on Friday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
How over-extended was the rally? Monday’s rally to and through 1.1945-1.1970 had extended Tuesday night to test 1.2080. Its intraday session-long reaction down Tuesday had nevertheless stopped optimistically short of actually filling the gap back to Monday’s close just under 1.2000. Wednesday’s open leap-frogged under 1.1945-1.1970 to consolidate back down to 1.1900. A second consecutive lower close would reverse the trend down for a deeper pullback. Otherwise, any delay in extending down would keep alive the near-term potential for retesting Tuesday night’s high.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding Tuesday’s retracement to the 1318.50 pullback limit didn’t prevent extending down overnight to the 1310.50 sell signal. Touching pre-open and post-open held through the close to avoid triggering. But 1318.50 wasn’t recovered, which would indicate Monday night’s 1332.00 high was being retested.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a 10-cent premium to Sep]… Gapping down slightly Wednesday stopped short of retracing the 17.30 buy signal that had triggered Monday, keeping alive the potential for a near-term retest of Monday night’s 17.75 high on the way to the 17.90 target.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s pullback from 158-04 had extended just enough at Wednesday’s open to touch Monday’s “lower prior highs” at 156-25. The delay suggests an even deeper dip to at least 156-16 before reversing up to retest Monday night’s high.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
More narrow ranging into Wednesday’s session avoided a fresh low, but still hovered above Tuesday’s fresh low without rejecting it and the 45.50 target in-play.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce up to 2.98 was unable to close higher, and reversed back down to test the 2.94 sell signal Wednesday. Thursday morning’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, although testing the 2.84 target would help to complete the bottoming pattern.