Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending up Wednesday had filled the outstanding gap and closed above it, expending a lot of energy while “unfinished business” below remained outstanding. Thursday’s open gapped down to the 1.1290-1.1300 support, whose break would target the gap back down to 1.1200.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping overnight greeted Thursday’s open back down at its 1295.50 buy signal. Wednesday’s second consecutive higher close had already required at least an eventual third higher close, which remains likely sooner rather than later. Preferably rallying will avoid any further delay.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s open was greeted back at the 15.27 buy signal which was barely confirmed Wednesday. Probing even lower intraday tested “lower prior highs” at 15.15. The correction day should resolve up without delay if the upside momentum remains intact.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite having held the 146-00 pullback limit Wednesday, extending down overnight threatened to close lower Thursday under 145-16 and to signal the trend reversing down.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already probing above Wednesday’s highs overnight, Thursday’s second consecutive higher close would confirm Wednesday’s breakout and require at least an eventual third higher close.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reacting favorably to Thursday’s EIA report needs to close above 2.84 and not only test it to signal a rally leg is underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Two days of testing natural resistance at the 1.1300 61.8% gap-fill have resolved up to test 1.1340. Back under 1.1295 would still trigger the retest of the 1.1195 gap fill at the low.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s was Gold’s day to outperform, up sharply pre-open to fresh recovery highs that were maintained through the day. The rally leg seems entrenched, albeit not necessarily enough to yet allow a corrective day before extending higher.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday ranged entirely in positive territory but was retrained by Tuesday’s highs. A higher close Thursday is needed to confirm that Wednesday’s pattern was not bearish “ineffectual optimism.”

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Wednesday spent the session hovering narrowly at the 146-00 pullback limit to keep alive upside momentum, while requiring the rally to resume without delay to avoid a much deeper retracement.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing Tuesday’s highs early Wednesday, the morning’s EIA report was being greeted from a position of strength. Its reaction probed higher for the first qualified close above the 57.00 buy signal.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two days of sitting at the 2.76 sleeper low had held, and finally began recovering Wednesday. But not enough to reverse momentum up above 2.84, so Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from a position of strength.