Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Room for noise above the retested 1.1735-1.1755 objective at 1.1808 was met overnight by follow-through from Wednesday’s FOMC news. Closing negative Thursday would be the proverbial “canary in a coal mine” warning that USD was about to improve against the basket that has been rallying to its detriment. Thursday’s negative close does suggest a top is forming.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging after Wednesday’s close in reaction to the FOMC news had fulfilled the 1259.70 target. It was probed overnight and Thursday morning to 1265.00. A pullback to 1254.00 held its 1257.00 pullback limit to avoid reversing down.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s post-close FOMC news had triggered a surge to fresh highs that extended to fulfill the outstanding 16.70 target up to 16.81. Its reaction down to 16.54 tested the 16.60 pullback limit through the close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing overnight only touched the 153-16 buy signal. It was reversed in time to gap down Thursday which extended through the morning to probe Wednesday’s 152-08 low and range around it. Closing back above 152-26 would suggest a recovery is underway.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still no reversal at Thursday’s open, which now has room under 48.25 to 47.25 before signaling the trend has reversed down to retest the low’s consolidation. The rally until then is still considered only temporary, although it has held up and extended against a lot of “permanent low” talk.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having neutralized the gap back down to Monday’s close on Wednesday, Thursday’s EIA report avoided being greeted from a position of weakness. The reaction spiked up through the 2.95 buy signal, but the session only hovered above ita.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Piercing the 1.1650 sell signal overnight held through Wednesday morning ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Its reaction surged back up to Tuesday morning’s high, likely also t test 1.1755.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback extended overnight to test the rally’s prior objective of 1244.00 as support ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The reaction rallied back into positive territory at 1255.50, still targeting 1259.70.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A relatively shallow pullback overnight produced a gap down that ranged sideways throughout Wednesday’s session. Reaction to the FOMC policy statement surged back toward the week’s 16.60 high, still targeting 16.70.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing slightly lower overnight was extended deeper Wednesday morning. Repeating Tuesday’s deep drop was avoided, which can be bullish for the long bond’s behavior following a single session’s steep move. But the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement was not greeted from a position of strength, other than to have expended a lot of selling pressure very recently.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating around 48.25 overnight allowed a favorable reaction on Wednesday morning’s EIA report to attack 48.90. Its reaction down into negative territory filled the gap back to Monday’s 47.90 close and bounced back above 48.25.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
An overnight probe above the 2.95 buy signal was reversed to gap down Wednesday. Extending down through the morning filled the gap back down to Monday’s 2.89. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, except for there being no unfinished business below.