Bigger Picture
Saturday Review Link
No new high on a Friday. Not for lack of proximity, being one day off the high. Nor for lack of attraction above, there being a “new Globex trend extreme” outstanding. And the quasi-seasonality of expiration isn’t generally an obstacle to the prevailing trend. It’s just one day, but it was an important day, so what could it mean?
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming overnight extended higher Friday to a new high, which suggests there will be follow-through Monday morning to 1.1730-1.1750 before a durable reversal down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing slightly higher overnight was enough to gap up at Friday’s open. The first breakout from an outside day in this setup is likely to extend, so 1259.70 is now in-play.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday above the upper-objective’s 16.35 high suggests the next leg is underway and targeting 16.70.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s late dip had not reversed the intraday rally, keeping upside momentum alive. Rallying overnight gapped up to Thursday’s high and extended higher through the morning, to within a quarter-point of this leg’s 155-06 target.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ongoing suspicions about the recovery above 46.25 and 47.25 were already being confirmed by Thursday’s close back under the latter. Friday morning’s extension slid under the former. Support at 45.15 should be tested next, and its break would allow the low’s consolidation to tested for a more credible bottom to form.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The potential if not likelihood for filling gaps down to at least 3.02 and possible 2.98 began to be fulfilled overnight. The lower gap was filled by extending down deeper Friday morning. Back above 3.05 would signal that the bottom had fully formed a durable rally leg was underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 24, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any noticeable reaction to the post-open PMI Flash report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to Home Sales. As for Home Sales, it follows a week’s worth of housing sector reports that got extra scrutiny to the degree that it reflects consumer health, especially ahead of the FOMC meeting.
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping ahead of Thursday morning’s ECB events tested almost the entirety of 1.1510-1.1525 as support, where any lower would have signaled the trend reversing down. Instead the support test launched a surge to fresh highs, fulfilling the 1.1650 target and extending even higher to 1.1695.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s mini-flash crash had tested the original 1236.00 objective as support and recovered up to the 1244.00 objective. Thursday’s retest of the flash crash low was also recovered, to a fresh high above 1247.00 forming an “outside day.” The prior high was still being overlapped. Not immediately reversing back down Friday would signal the recovery is extending, with potential to 1259.75.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially dipping overnight to retest Wednesday’s mini-flash crash low, Thursday morning recovered back up to more thoroughly test the entire 16.32-16.35 objective’s range. Closing back under 16.15 would signal at least a correction underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having rested on Wednesday, Thursday’s requirement to resume the rally was fulfilled by quickly breaking to fresh highs and above 154-02 resistance, extending to 154-22 on the way to the 155-06 target.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep which trades at a .20-.25 premium to Aug…] Initially probing above 47.25 Thursday was retraced into the afternoon, still not suggesting a new rally leg has begun. This continues to leave 46.25 as the nearest sell signal.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report blipped-up to a fresh high at 3.11 and then dripped back down to the 3.05 buy signal. Closing above 3.11 would signal the rally is resuming, but I’m not convinced that the gap back down to 3.02 won’t be filled first.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Expiration is Friday’s only event, so it might have unusual influence on price action. And that means WedEX could be unusually influential, too.
*Expiration
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET