Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s drop from 1.1510-1.1525 resistance down to 1.1450 support tried probing a little lower overnight.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning’s overlapping of 1219.00 by only $3 still needs confirmation to put into play a retest of last week’s 1204.00 low, probably to include a test of 1199.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping Thursday attacked the 15.55-15.60 pullback below which fresh lows would be put into play.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Briefly probing above 153-02 overnight was retraced before Thursday’s open. Extending down to test 152-00 “lower prior highs” now allows a more durable recovery leg to begin, initially targeting 154-04.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s last intraday swing had neutralized the attraction back to its opening gap up at 46.00. But Thursday didn’t trend back down, and instead continued testing 46.00. Resolving down at all should begin resolving down by Friday’s open.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from an attack on 2.95 “lower prior highs” was recovered to 3.02 before reversing back down toward intraday lows. Filling the recent gap back down to 2.92 would be optimal for correcting the breakout so that it may resume.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s surge to the 1.1510-1.1525 target as a false breakout seemed to be confirmed by immediately dipping back to prior highs Wednesday morning. That was in reaction to a catalyst (Yellen’s remarks), and down to 1.1450 support. So, a second consecutive lower close is needed to confirm the trend reversing down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight and then surging in reaction to Yellen’s remarks Wednesday tested resistance at 1225.00. Closing back under 1219.00 would signal a move underway to retest the recent 1204.00 low, possibly to 1199.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Higher highs into Wednesday’s open tested recent highs, the highest levels above 15.55-15.60. while testing resistance that should now trigger a test of 15.55-15.60 as support for a durable bottom to form.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yellen’s remarks Wednesday morning triggered a surge testing 152-20/153-00 that qualified it as relevant. Immediately pulling back to “lower prior highs” at 152-00 would likely form a durable bottom whose next rally leg is credible for launching a recovery. Extending higher first would target 154-02 where a deeper pullback would become likely.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still overlapping 44.90 resistance at Tuesday’s close didn’t prevent extending higher later in reaction to API, and extending higher overnight for Wednesday’s open to gap up to 46.00. A slightly higher post-open high testing 46.45 reacted down on EIA, filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Under 46.00 would signal the low’s retest underway.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday morning’s dip tested Tuesday’s 2.98 opening gap up as support. It was pierced down to 2.97, which could serve as the pullback low. A complete retracement to 2.95 would be healthier before rallying.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not yet reversing down Monday after having neutralized the high’s outstanding gaps did make a probe of fresh highs likely before reversing down would be credible. Resistance was tested in the 1.1510-1.1525 area. Closing back under 1.1450 would signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Shallow overnight weakness hardly attacked Monday’s 1204.80 support before recovering to probe above Monday’s high to 1217.00. A more reliable bottom would retest the overnight lows, but closing higher Wednesday would be credible for extending.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness was reversed Tuesday to probe Monday’s close, which had recovered 15.55-15.60 to being signaling the decline has ended.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging didn’t extend the decline, but still doesn’t qualify as the “warning shot across the bow” at sellers which this pattern tends to form at the end of its trend and just prior to reversing.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly sideways Tuesday would have confirmed that Monday’s dip didn’t complete the bottoming pattern, which should still test the low’s consolidation to at least 43.40 if not also slightly lower. Firming back above 44.90 instead did fill a gap, but does undermine the near-term test of the lows.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up was within Friday’s range so the gap back down to Friday’s close does not require being filled. Gapping up this morning above the 2.95-2.97 buy signal was above a prior low, so retesting “lower prior highs” may be avoided. Closing above 3.05 would suggest the rally is simply extending.