Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s spike up to the 1.1285 highs was retraced enough to greet the FOMC news back at or under 1.1255. The reaction retraced the morning’s upleg, extended down overnight, and gapped down Thursday to fresh lows testing 1.1133. While this likely fulfills the pattern’s requirement for a third lower close, it also likely launches a downleg targeting 1.1110 and 1.0995.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing the 1272.50 buy signal Wednesday had been productive enough to test 1281.00. But it originated too late to be reliable, and the FOMC reaction retraced it all. Trending lower overnight gapped down Thursday to four-week old lows under 1253.00. Unless 1266.25 were recovered, the trend is targeting 1238.00-1239.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s surge was retraced entirely after the close in reaction to the FOMC statement. Gapping down Thursday tested Tuesday’s Island at 16.70. Closing back above 17.00 would complete a Double Bottom, but the trend otherwise remains down.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging already to 156-05 before Wednesday’s FOMC statement was retraced to test critical support at 155-04, whose break would signal a retest of the range’s lower-end at 153-29, and probably also the range’s break lower.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s drop had filled the gap back to the prior Wednesday’s 45.29 open under all prior lows, and then closed lower. Closing lower Thursday forms a continuation pattern suggesting the decline is not yet nearing a bottom. Closing back above 46.20 would help resume the bottoming pattern.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was a sharp rally from the new low close at 2.95 up to 3.06. Having originated from a new low close, the bounce is expected to be retraced. Meanwhile, the bounce does create extra room to expend selling pressure before it can further damage the chart, which allows for a bottom to form.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up Wednesday to retest 1.1285 resistance at the highs was retraced to 1.1255 support, which must hold to avoid quickly fulfilling the lower close already required.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Barely recovering 1268.50 Tuesday wasn’t as strong as would have been recovering 1269.50, too
spike up at Wednesday’s open through the 1272.50 buy signal extended to attack 1282.00. It wasn’t all maintained coming out of the FOMC news. But a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm a probe above 1300.00 is in0-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday to 16.90 created an island of Tuesday’s session. It also extended sharply higher to test 17.35. Filling two gaps along the way neutralized their attraction, and neutralizing the low’s oversold condition that could have been helpful to leveraging a reaction to the news. Regardless, closing higher again Thursday would confirm an upleg underway targeting 17.90.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The support test of 153-29 resolved up sharply Wednesday, surging 2 points to new highs at 156-05 ahead of the FOMC policy statement. No sell signal would be calculable at new highs. But closing back under 155-04 would signal that the rally isn’t gaining traction.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having filled the Monday’s opening gap above at 46.49, last Wednesday’s 45.29 opening gap below became the new attraction. Spiking down quickly fulfilled it and consolidated at fresh lows around 44.55. Back above 46.20 would signal the low is in and momentum has reversed up.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping back down to fresh lows Wednesday recovered back above prior lows intraday. That was retraced to produce a fresh low close, and to delay a bottom at least one more day.