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Bigger Picture – Page 235 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying significantly overnight easily probed above the gap back to last Friday’s close and the rally’s original 1.1025 target. Friday’s 1.0920 buy signal has already fulfilled its requirement for at least a third higher close. Topping from a new high’s gap up is unlikely.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday was Gold’s turn to outperform, probing above Monday’s highs and above the upper-end of the 1228.00-1236.00 range. Back under 1228.00 would resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s shallow gap up remained within Monday’s range, which had trended down intraday from gapping up. Breaking under Monday’s low would launch the next downleg.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initial weakness Tuesday was reversed up sharply through 151-22 to 152-00, whose recoveries through the close would make a recovery increasingly likely to be underway.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly Tuesday between 48.90-49.30 avoided immediately rejecting Monday’s extension of the rally, which suggests the pattern intends to probe higher again, but not necessarily that Wednesday’s EIA is being greeted from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Tuesday probed under the 3.29 sell signal, which would target fresh lows under 3.11. Bouncing first remains possible, potentially to more thoroughly test the rally’s 3.42-3.45 target.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 17, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open MBA Apps has no track record for influencing price action, even being the morning’s only report. EIA influences Crude Oil, which could give the market a sympathetic reaction.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s trigger of the 1.0920 buy signal was extended higher overnight and through Monday morning, already attacking its minimum objective to fill the gap back up to 1.1010. A second consecutive higher close would also require an eventual third, making the original 1.1025 target’s retest likely, too.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further overnight to the bounce’s highest levels tested the 1228.00-1236.00 range’s upper-end. The balance of the session drifted back down to its lower-end. Closing lower Tuesday would suggest the 1206.00-1211.00 target is in-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night extended the rally considerably, probing slilghtly higher Monday morning to test the original 16.75 sell signal that had put into play 15.95 which remains outstanding below 16.40.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight choppiness remains in proximity to trigger the 151-22 inflection point, preferably also recovering 152-00 to help confirm a bigger bounce underway.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sharply higher highs Sunday night probed the rally’s 48.85 target, up to 49.66, ranging Monday around 49.30 resistance. That had been confirmation to the prior rally leg, so recovering it again would be challenging while a gap remains outstanding at the low.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap down from the rally’s 3.42-3.45 target area responded appropriately to the area’s vulnerability. Monday didn’t extend the gap down, but neither was it recovered. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday is needed to confirm fresh lows under 3.11 are in-play.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 16, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: None of Tuesday’s four econ reports is reliable for triggering a price reaction. But any price reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to a subsequent report, especially post-open.

Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET

E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Surging at Friday’s open triggered the 1.0920 buy signal, which was extended intraday. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the gap back to the prior Friday’s close and probably also a retest of 1.1025 is underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The bounce extended Friday, probing temporarily into the 1228.00-1236.00 range. Closing within it would all but ensure testing its upper-end. Otherwise, another downdraft to the 1206.11-1211.00 target is imminent.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight tested prior highs that had preceded the recent break lower. Closing any higher Monday would all but invalidate the attraction to 15.95, at least in the near-term.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Friday morning through 151-02 touched the decline’s original 151-22 target. Closing any higher would signal momentum reversing up, but backing-and-filling first wouldn’t be surprising in even the most bullish scenario.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly Friday didn’t extend to the 48.85 target, but also didn’t reject the 47.65 recovery. There’s no assurance of actually extending the rally until closing above 48.85.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday morning extended the rally up to the lower-end of the 3.42-3.45 target area. There is potential to one more higher close, but no higher so long as 3.45 holds as resistance.