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Bigger Picture – Page 241 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 1, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: The calendar is unusually high-profile and influential for a Monday. More so, any specific reaction to the post-open PMI number has greater potential to be duplicated in reaction to the two later reports being released in tandem with each other, one of which has a reliable track record for influening price action.

Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET

Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET

*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET

*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET

Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The bounce into Wednesday afternoon was retraced Thursday back down to Wednesday’s lows, still hovering above the 1.0860 sell signal.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close blip-down was only attacked by Thursday morning’s dip to 1262.00, which also reacted up to attempt forming a bottom to the pullback.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The relentless selling produced a fresh low Thursday, which maintains the degree of difficulty to recovering. But the slide can still qualify as only a correction, so long as Friday avoids a fresh low close.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still fluctuating Thursday at or within Wednesday’s range continued to suggest a fresh low remains likely down to 151-22 before a recovery would be credible.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday afternoon’s dip extended down overnight and Thursday morning, retesting the recent bottoming attempt’s lows. Closing above 50.00 before the weekend would resuscitate the bottoming pattern.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Weakness into and out of Thursday’s EIA report was at least in-line with the report not being greeted from a position of strength. But at least an eventual third lower close remains outstanding.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 28, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Friday’s calendar isn’t light, but it’s remarkably heavy with influential and high-profile items. Especially the post-open PMI which usually triggers a reaction several minutes earlier as its institutional clients get the data early. That reaction tends to repeat when released publicly, and also to inform the reaction to the later report. Two Fed speakers keep Friday afternoon active.

GDP
8:30 AM ET

Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET

*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET

*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET

Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET

*Lael Brainard Speaks
1:15 PM ET

*Patrick Harker Speaks
2:30 PM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday to Tuesday’s 1.0920 open prevented forming an Island. Dipping into Monday’s range was recovered back up toward Tuesday’s above 1.0960.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Remaining under pressure through Wednesday remained in proximity to the pullback’s 1261.00 area target. That was tested in reaction to tax reform headlines, which reacted up back above 1266.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down throughout Wednesday to a fresh pullback low then blipped-down on tax reform headlines, before firming.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Choppy ranging Wednesday didn’t didn’t reverse momentum up, suggesting the 151-22 pullback objective remains in-play so long as 153-12 isn’t recovered.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s reaction to EIA surged to a fresh recovery high at 50.20, which was consolidated into the close.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday just under the 3.21 “higher prior lows” sell signal extended higher to 3.28. At least an eventual third lower close remains outstanding, so the one-day reversal isn’t greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 27, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: The calendar gets busy again on Thursday. Yet, other than the ECB statement and Draghi’s press conference, only the pre-open Durable Goods report has any reliable track record for influencing price action. The post-open housing sector report may trigger a reaction, but only to the extent that it disagrees with Tuesday’s three reports.

*ECB Policy statement
7:00 AM ET

*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET

International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET

Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET

7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM ET