Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down again Thursday is no less premature for launching a new downleg without first retesting Monday’s 1.0935 gap open, The break under 1.0835 has extended to 1.0725, and back above 1.0765 would signal momentum reversing up.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping Thursday probed Friday’s post-close low down to 1244.00, which further neutralized any attraction below that it might have had. Also lacking any upside requirements since already rewarding last week’s confirmed breakout, the pattern is being monitored for a new setup and signal.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Thursday morning touched the “higher prior lows” at 18.30. Reversing to close in negative territory would prevent extending the bounce to probe above 18.55.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still yet to retest Monday’s 151-26 gap up, the 150-24 sell signal was retested Thursday. Its prior test has chipped away at its support to allow its break to be credible, albeit not yet optimal.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already probing slightly higher overnight, the 48.50 signal and its 49.30 confirmation were probed Thursday to test 50.45, likely forming a bottom. Its recovery should test at least 53.55.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report touched the 3.14 sell signal and bounced as expected to fill the gap at Wednesday’s 3.23 open. Any close under Thursday’s low would now be credible for reversing the trend down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having reacted straight down since Monday’s gap up, Wednesday’s gap down served as capitulation to the premature reversal attempt. It’s not a buy signal, but the gap back up to Monday’s 1.0935 open should be filled before a durable decline would be credible.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s post-close dip back down to Friday’s close did not extend lower overnight, but its reaction up was shallow.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday kept alive the attraction to “higher prior lows” at 18.30, which remain in-play so long as 17.90 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s test of the 150-24 sell signal wasn’t likely to break lower without first bouncing to fill Monday’s 151-26 gap open at the rally’s 152-00 target. Wednesday’s gap up rejected the test, and flat-to-higher ranging kept alive that attraction above.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing the 48.50 buy signal through Tuesday’s close, the aggressive reaction to Wednesday morning’s EIA report probed above 49.00 to further suggest that a durable bottom is forming, testing 49.30 whose recovery would confirm.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to fresh highs Wednesday was too aggressive at this stage of the pattern to be reliable for extending higher, other than greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.