Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s “outside day” was only narrowly so. It neither rejected Tuesday’s session to form an Island, nor did it extend higher. Gapping down Thursday would still form an Island. Meanwhile, the next higher objective in-play is 1.0900, so long as pullbacks hold 1.0750 as support.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gaining several dollars Wednesday to 1251.20 satisfies near-term buying pressure, while also confirming Tuesday’s breakout which requires an eventual third higher close. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold 1239.50 as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Very narrow ranging Wednesday didn’t reject Tuesday’s close above 17.50, which has put into play a test of 17.90.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not reversing down Wednesday made the pattern likely to extend to its next higher target at 152-04, which was attacked to within 1 point and remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 150-15.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s probe under last week’s Island had become likely when Monday’s low only touched the Island’s “lower prior highs” instead of also filling either of its gaps. Closing back above Wednesday’s 47.75 low undermines the downside momentum. Wednesday’s opening gap down was retested intraday, so there is no “unfinished business below” if a rally were to begin, by closing back above 48.50.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Breaking lower at Wednesday’s open extended down intraday to close under the 3.08 pullback limit. One more lower close already would have greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness, but it is certainly not optimal strength. Closing under 2.99 would reverse the trend back down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday gapped up to 1.0860 and fluctuated sideways. Gapping down Wednesday could form an Island pattern and trigger a temporary reversal. Otherwise, the rally has room up to 1.0900.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Quickly exceeding 1232.50 Tuesday extended sharply higher to test 1248.00 intraday. A second consecutive higher close would target fresh highs above 1265.00. Closing back under 1232.50 would reverse the trend back down.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s early surge through 17.50 extended to 17.62, putting into play a test of 17.90.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending Monday above the 148-04 bounce target had put into play the next higher objective at 150-06. It was pierced by several ticks Tuesday. Back under 149-12 would signal that the bounce’s momentum had ended.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s dip back under Monday’s low filled the gap back to last Tuesday’s 48.25 gap down. That session’s Island can be probed to fresh lows, but closing back above 48.45 would suggest a durable bottom is forming.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday probed prior highs up to 3.11, fulfilling the likely minimum consequence for Monday having closed above the 3.00 bounce limit. Reacting back down probed a nickel under the new 3.08 pullback limit, while filling the gap back down to Monday’s close. Closing beyond either end of Tuesday’s range can trend in that direction.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday morning’s extremely narrow ranging at Friday’s high gave way just a bit into the afternoon, still hovering dangerously close to the 1.0695 sell signal.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night firmed up to 1235.50 before dipping back into the range most of Monday. It was attack Monday afternoon by probing back above the 1232.50 gap up that had been tested already Thursday.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 17.50 resistance that had held its brief test Thursday was retested Monday. Its recovery would target 17.90.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Never rejecting Friday’s recovery to the 148-20 bounce target, which had held its test Thursday night, enabled its probe to fresh highs Monday. Unless rejected soon and aggressively, the bounce can next extend to 150-06.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s gap down touched the “lower prior high” of Tuesday’s range, which had formed while Tuesday’s lower-end was fulfilling the 47.25 target. “Unfinished business above” at Friday’s close was then nearly neutralized, too. No further weakness is required before launching a corrective bounce.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night didn’t prevent Monday morning from rallying back above 2.95. And also back above 3.00 to require triggering the 2.95 sell signal Tuesday to avoid fresh highs.