Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fulfilling the retest of Sunday night’s highs up to 1.0765 probed higher Wednesday night. Holding the test would form a substantial top, and a reversal down would be triggered back under 1.0695.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Spiking up after Wednesday’s close in reaction to FOMC had extended to “higher prior lows” at 1225.00. The next higher objective at a gap up was filled Thursday morning up to 1232.50. Having probed the prior structure, the 1222.00 gap down is an attraction, as is the gap back down to Tuesday’s close.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The post-close reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC spiked up through the 17.05 buy signal. Extending higher overnight greeted Thursday’s open at the 17.50 target. Closing any higher would next target 17.90.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already fulfilling the 148-20 corrective bounce target allows the decline to resume, by closing back under 147-24. Closing any higher would only suggest a bigger corrective bounce underway, with potential to 149-22.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s Island Reversal pattern remained intact through Thursday’s open, greatly diminishing the attraction to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close before extending the corrective bounce up to 50.00.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, since the 3.00 pullback limit failed to hold or be recovered. Thursday opened under the 2.95 sell signal that had been probed Tuesday. Probing it deeper Thursday down to 2.88 tried reversing up, but still failed to recover 2.95 through the close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
No second consecutive lower close Wednesday under 1.0695 so no confirmation of Tuesday’s break. Instead, the more bearish scenario may be developing, with a probe above Monday’s high and potentially also a quick retest of Sunday night’s high up to 1.0865 that is quickly rejected.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1198.50-1209.00 range had persisted through the close, but now its upper-end was probed by a spike up in reaction to Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC news. A second consecutive close above the range, a positive close, would launch a rally leg and probably avoid fresh lows testing 1192.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday night’s bounce up to 17.05 was exceeded after Wednesday’s close in reaction to the FOMC news. There is room up to 17.80.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday extended Tuesday’s close above the 146-16 bounce limit up to the bounce’s 148-04 objective. Potential to higher highs to 148-20 or higher depends on pullbacks holding 147-11 as support.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having fulfilled the 47.25 target at Tuesday’s low, gapping up Wednesday to test 48.75 bounce limit is trying to form a near-term bottom. The gap up formed an Island of Tuesday’s range which can produce near-term corrective rally but not durable without eventually retesting the Island whether to complete a bottom or to seek out a new one lower.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday tested the 3.00 pullback limit as resistance that had failed to hold as support before breaking a little lower Wednesday. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from strength by sellers, but the uptrend’s traction has lapsed.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to and through 1.0695 Tuesday morning is threatening to form an Island Reversal of Monday’s range. Its reversal down would be only temporary, unless an interim bounce were to probe back into Monday’s range — if not also back above it to at least 1.0765.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fluctuating around unchanged overnight was essentially repeated Tuesday without extending in either direction, leaving alive the potential for a fresh low at 1192.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight fluctuation around unchanged was repeated Tuesday morning, and improved to test 17.05, but not necessarily to close above it.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows overnight down to 145-26 reacted up into and out of the open to test 147-00. Almost any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher, but almost any delay in extending higher would be likely to retest Tuesday’s low.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Tuesday probed under the 47.25 target down to 47.09. The gap down reflects a degree of capitulation that may be bullish in the near-term from a contrarian perspective.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Attacking Monday’s highs before Tuesday’s open proved solid resistance, as the balance of the morning trended back down through the 3.00 pullback limit and under the 2.95 sell signal.