Bigger Picture
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/4/17) … Fewer and further.
Expressions of optimism have become fewer, and further between. And whether as recoveries from dips, or as breaks to fresh highs, optimism lacks a consistent productivity that is common for a healthy advance. None of which matters much in the near-term when there’s still an occasional super-sized rally — like Wednesday’s — which creates a lot of room for two downtrending sessions to barely retrace 61.8%. The observation may sound more immediately ominous than it yet deserves. But it still warns traders not to rely on runaway longs, and not to shun shorts.
This week’s Saturday Review identifies price levels where the pattern would be vulnerable to peaking, and where another sporadic surge to fresh highs could reach safe haven — temporary as it may be. Along with subscribers’ Q&A, the pattern’s possible shapes and timing are also described in detail for the coming week, which culminates in the delayed monthly Employment Situation report.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
DKS, MIK, NAV, URBN, BOBE, CIEN, HOV, IGT, SIG, MTN, AAPL
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday held its test of Thursday’s gap down, maintaining the decline’s 1.0470 outstanding target.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s break under the 1241.00 sell signal and 1238.00 confirmation probed lower overnight and extended Friday morning to test prior lows down to 1223.00. Back above 1233.00 is the minimum requirement to signal momentum reversing up.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s plunge barely bounced overnight before probing lower Friday morning to test 17.70 support. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close would avoid requiring at least a third eventual lower close, but the pattern does not appear capable otherwise of avoiding that.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having confirmed the trend change with Thursday’s second consecutive close under 151-11, Friday drifted to fresh lows under 150-00 into the weekend. Under 149-22 would confirm the drop targeting 148-02 is underway.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s break under the 53.58 sell signal came at a point in the pattern that could be very bearish if confirmed, but Friday’s bounce is avoiding a second consecutive lower close. The default is not necessarily bearish, and the pattern remains vulnerable to probing fresh lows Monday.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming slightly Friday to test 2.82 resistance still has room to test 2.86 while still being required to probe under the prior week’s overnight 2.64 lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The post-open Factory Orders has no track record for being influential. Not necessarily this month. Being Monday’s only high-profile report, and almost its only report, any surprise could have a disparate impact on price action. The afternoon’s Fed speaker may keep things lively into the close.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
3:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap down to last week’s lows testing 1.0505 did not recover intraday, being likelier to extend down to the longstanding 1.0470 target.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s retracement of Wednesday’s bounce probed under its lows down to 1231.00. Just closing under 1238.00 suggests an actual downleg is underway, and not just noise within a range. A break lower would be credible, despite leaving outstanding an eventual third higher close that was signaled by last week’s confirmed breakout.. So, avoiding a break lower or its confirmation would be likelier to recover.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s early weakness easily held the past week’s 18.30 support. The afternoon did not, as price plunged to the lowest levels in three weeks at 17.70. Clearly, 18.70 is off the table, and no buy signal is imminent.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s break under 151-11 extended lower overnight and Thursday morning, confirming the trend change that now targets fresh lows.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down and extending down Thursday offered the best opportunity in weeks to finally break the ongoing range, which had just failed to exploit to higher closes up to resistance.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming a little further ahead of Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t much upset in reaction. The bounce still has room up to 2.86 while still being likely to probe fresh lows under 2.64.