Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite initially extending lower after gaping down under its 1.0570 target, Wednesday bounced back into positive territory. Now despite having held its 1.0605 bounce limit through Wednesday’s close, Thursday gapped up to the 1.0645 prior target. And extended higher to 1.0695 resistance. Which is all a little quick to be durable, so a dip back down to 1.0560 is likely.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Thursday above the prior recent rally peaks at 1236.00 extended to test the 1242.00 minimum objective and attack 1244.00. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal that the bounce’s delay will be compensated for by extending to 1259.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up extended to within a nickel of the 18.18 objective, whose recovery through the close would next target 18.72.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Thursday morning probed the adjusted 150-14 bounce limit as well as the previous 150-26 bounce limit, attacking 151-11. The bounce developed from Wednesday’s test of February’s prior lows, so it is likely only obligatory and temporary. And rejecting a single day’s probe above the bounce limit(s) by reversing down sharply Friday can reinstate the decline’s momentum.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 52.55-53.55 range persisted Thursday, once again dipping only to 52.75. The range’s upper-end was also tested, continuing to chip away at both resistance and support in the same session to suggest that a break either way is nearing.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength to the extent that the decline’s 2.91 target had been met, and held, and reacted to. But only briefly, and without yet reversing momentum up, keeping the door open to at least a negative knee-jerk reaction down. Which the report’s reaction fulfilled by dropping to fresh lows. Closing back above 2.93 would start to confirm a bottom is forming.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday to a fresh low would have suggested the 1.0570 target met Tuesday will next target 1.0470. But bouncing back into positive territory tested the 1.0605 bounce limit. A new low close Thursday would avoid forming a bottom.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing relatively lower to 1217.50 was recovered Wednesday to once again probe above 1229.00-1230.00, this time to test 1234.00, potentially launching a retest of 1242.00 above, and possibly also extend to 1259.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Shallow overnight weakness was holding prior lows at Wednesday’s open, keeping enough of the upside momentum intact to at least attack 18.18, still targeting 18.18.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending down sharply Wednesday morning to fresh lows at 149-16 all but ensures that the originally sealed top is back in-play, following the brief but substantial detour.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down slightly didn’t greet Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength or weakness, still being in the middle of an ongoing range that has no consistent indications of accumulation or distribution.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying sharply overnight suggests the 2.91 target finally met Tuesday did satisfy all remaining relevant selling pressure. But gapping up was not the appropriate start to a recovery. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength, although an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down can’t be discounted.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming overnight was reversing already into Tuesday’s open, and then dropped to fresh lows amid Yellen’s Senate testimony. The 1.0570 target was met at the low. Extending the drop would next target 1.0470 so long as 1.0605 holds bounces.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Tuesday filled the gap back to Friday’s 1236.00 close, and then reversed back into negative territory amid Yellen’s Senate testimony. Fluctuating around unchanged and hovering under 1229.00-1230.00 must hold above 1220.00 to maintain near-term potential for filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s 1242.00 opening gap.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday within Monday’s range probed higher initially, and then reversed back into negative territory amid Yellen’s Senate testimony. Positive territory was quickly recovered, and not relinquished. The 18.18 target remains in-play so long as 17.50.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking Monday’s lows overnight had already threatened to reverse its intraday bounce back up to 151-11. Plunging post-open to fresh lows  at 149-29 filled the gap back to Feb 3 where the rogue rally had developed. Bounce should hold 150-26 to maintain the decline’s momentum.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday only tested the 53.55 resistance whose recovery would all but ensure extending up to 55.25 next. Reacting back down to 53.00 held, while breaking back under 53.25 is still necessary to signal a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight fulfilled the 2.91 objective, and gapped down there, ranging very narrowly around it and 1-2 cents under it. There is no new signal, and an immediate recovery is unlikely after having gapped down on Tuesday.