Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… PLEASE NOTE: THERE IS NO MARKET WRAP TODAY.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s test of the 1.0655 buy signal was probed overnight up to 1.0695, and then again Friday morning to at least test the 1.0685 prior highs. Closing any higher would help to confirm that Wednesday’s retest of the prior Wednesday’s close had sufficed to form a durable bottom.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Modest overnight strength stopped short of even attacking the 1181.00 level whose recovery would start to suggest a bottom is forming. Friday’s post-open dip to 1168.50 was recovered to a higher high. Meanwhile, this leg’s minimum 1166.00 objective has held two tests and closed higher, with no overnight lower low, so a bottom has no bullish reason to further delay starting to signal it is forming.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying overnight to probe back above 16.70 was retraced already by Friday’s open. But the morning’s higher highs suggested its recovery through the close, which would begin sealing a bottom, if not also reverse momentum up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday ahead of the Employment Situation report didn’t much change in reaction to the report. So long as 150-25 isn’t recovered, at least one more lower close remains likely.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 50.50 pullback limit was tested overnight. So long as it holds as support through the close, the next higher target at 52.75 is in-play, and potentially aslo 56.15.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending to fresh highs overnight does not prevent reversing down intraday. Indeed, Friday’s opening action did reverse down from testing 3.57 overnight to probe under the 3.48 pullback limit, whose break through the close would trigger a deep pullback. Closing above 3.53 would indicate the pullback limit held its test.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap back down to last Wednesday’s 1.0560 close Wednesday may have sufficed to start forming a bottom, as was suspected. Gapping up Thursday morning was not an appropriate start to launching a recovery, but a post-open dip filled the gap back to this Wednesday’s close and recovered to test the 1.0655 buy signal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s break under 1181.00 had put into play 1166.00, which was tested overnight and then again intraday Thursday down to a lower low at 1162.20.  Closing above 1166.00 doesn’t reverse momentum up, but it does allow a bottom to begin forming.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows for the week under 16.45, both overnight and intraday Thursday, were recovered back above 16.45 to suggest that no new downleg is forming. But one remains vulnerable, unless 16.70 is recovered.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rolling coverage forward from Dec to Mar at a 1-12 discount … Wednesday’s gap down and probe under the prior low was followed by Thursday’s steep drop under the 150-25 sell signal (basis Mar, 152-07 basis Dec) to 148-11. The sequence qualifies as a confirmed breakout, next targeting 147-21, so long as bounces now hold 149-30.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The rally’s minimum 50.50 objective was met overnight, and then exceeded Thursday by gapping up and extending to 51.80. Being a second consecutive higher close, at least an eventual third higher close is now required. Its minimum likely target is 52.75, and potentially also 56.15.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday didn’t affect whether the morning’s EIA report was being greeted from a position of strength. Extending higher fulfilled this leg’s 3.45-3.50 target up to 3.52. The target area held as resistance through the close, so almost any negative close on Friday would trigger a multi-session pullback.