Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Quickly probing fresh lows Wednesday morning was ultimately maintained to fulfill the unfinished business below. Additionally, the 1.0540 target was tested and held. This isn’t necessarily a bottom, and a second consecutive lower close would confirm the decline’s momentum remains intact. But it’s an opportunity for a low, and we’ll now monitor for a reversal setup to develop.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s plunge sliced through the outstanding 1196.50 target down to 1181.20.Regardless of the sizeable one-day break, having originated from a multi-session range makes it a breakout, which a second consecutive lower close would confirm. Meanwhile, bounces should hold 1194.00 as resistance to maintain the decline’s momentum. Closing above 1201.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply lower lows Wednesday morning down to 16.15 provided the selling attempt still needed to prove whether a bottom has been forming. But closing back above 16.62 is still needed to even begin suggesting a bottom is forming — preferably without a second consecutive lower close.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking down to fresh lows at 151-19 on Wednesday’s pre-open Durable Goods report didn’t prove decisively whether the recent ranging is now resolving down. Bouncing probed back into the range to test 153-00, so the next session’s resolution in either direction would become vulnerable to extending in that direction again.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s last-minute surge up to 48.55 was rejected by gapping down Wednesday to test 47.45, but the gap was filled in reaction to the morning’s EIA report. None of which is necessarily bearish, so probing fresh recovery highs is likely.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming again Wednesday probed more decisively above the prior two sessions for a better chance at fulfilling the rally’s outstanding requirement for a third higher close. Closing above 3.08 would signal a bigger rally underway, but there otherwise remains attractions to 2-3 gaps below.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow range was followed by another on Tuesday, dipping only deeply enough to attack Friday’s low. At least a third eventual lower close is still required to fulfill Thursday’s confirmed breakout.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An even bigger bounce Monday night probed above the 1213.00 bounce limit and still resolved down to retest 1206.00 as support. The 1196.50 target remains intact.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s intraday fluctuation around 16.62 all but rejected what was the biggest overnight bounce since first fulfilling the objective, making fresh lows likely.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying Monday night barely attacked the 154-19 bounce limit and held the continuation pattern’s uptrending support as resistance. While that doesn’t invalidate the downside momentum, there’s no bearish reason such as refueling for further delaying a drop to fresh lows.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight highs fulfilled the 48.75 target while attacking 49.25, reacting down almost immediately. A second consecutive higher close could have confirmed Monday’s breakout session and created a higher objective, but closing negative instead does not necessarily reverse momentum down.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Simply firming to close positive Tuesday still satisfies the eventual third higher close that became required by confirming Thursday’s breakout. The gaps outstanding below can no longer be tested from a position of strength, but could still hold if tested. This week’s EIA report is scheduled one day earlier on Wednesday due to the holiday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday only touched the original 1.0655 target as resistance before reversing back to unchanged, poied to resume the decline next targeting 1.0545.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing the 1213.00 bounce limit through Monday’s open ultimately held as resistance, keeping alive potential for a fresh low at 1196.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still testing and retesting the 16.62 prior low Monday won’t launch a credible recovery without first probing deeper. By the same token, delaying a deeper dip would be “ineffectual optimism,” making an eventual deeper less likely to recover, at all.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Sunday night stopped short of 154-19 whose recovery is the minimum requirement to even consider that Friday’s break lower was ultimately absorbed. Anything shallower, and probably anything any later, is likely just a temporary correction before the recent range proves it has been a continuation pattern targeting sharply lower lows.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Russia joining the mix of recent OPEC headlines triggered a gap up Monday to resume the rally next targeting the 49.00 area (basis Jan, 48.25 basis Dec). It was attacked to within 50 cents intraday, so that pullbacks must now hold 46.40 (basis Jan, 45.70 basis Dec) to maintain the rally’s momentum.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again on Monday needed only to be maintained for a second consecutive higher close above 2.80 to signal momentum reversing up. While that typically becomes a rally leg, two gaps left outstanding below does suggest a rally would be premature. Dipping intraday to fill one or both gaps would now be likely to recover and to reverse up.