Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows overnight down to 1.1165 on the BOJ news were stabilized Wednesday morning. A spike up in reaction to FOMC attacked Monday’s 1.1240 high. Not closing any higher would keep alive the decline’s momentum, which otherwise has yet to produce two consecutive lower closes.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging higher overnight tested the 1329.00-1332.00 bounce limit Wednesday morning. Holding it through Wednesday’s close didn’t prevent attacking the original 1341.50 sell signal in reaction to FOMC news. Back under 1329.00 would resume the decline, but closing above 1341.50 would suggest a much bigger rally is underway.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reacting down Tuesday from Monday’s test of the 19.35 bounce limit didn’t prevent extending sharply higher overnight to test the original 19.75 sell signal as resistance Wednesday. It was probed after the close in reaction to FOMC news, and must be recovered through Thursday’s open to maintain this bounce as being only a temporary correction.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking down overnight in reaction to the BOJ news probed last week’s lows momentarily, recovering to greet Wednesday’s open probing back above the 165-30 bounce limit. Another, albeit shallower bobble reacted to the afternoon FOMC news before bouncing back up to 165-30. The pattern is well-positioned to rally, so any further delay would be considered bearish.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Wednesday morning and reacting up on the EIA report tested the 45.00 buy signal whose recovery through the close would signal momentum reversing up. Probing it up to 45.50 allows a second consecutive higher close Thursday to confirm a rally leg targeting 49.00 is underway.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Instead of backing-and-filling down to lower prior highs, Wednesday’s open gapped up above the longstanding 3.04 target that had been met Tuesday, attacking 3.10  But the initial strength didn’t extend, and the balance of the session only fluctuated around 3.04.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s bounce had retraced 61.8% of Friday’s steep drop through its 1.1265 sell signal, which Tuesday honored by not probing any higher, and by dipping back down toward Friday’s low. Not closing any lower would form a multi-session range which would be vulnerable to another breakout lower Wednesday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap up extended no higher intraday, but it wasn’t rejected Tuesday. At least, not yet. New lows targeting 1296.00-1297.00 remain in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip to 19.15 was recovered to attack the 19.35 bounce limit, but not recover it. Holding 19.35 Monday made the decline likely to resume, its retest of prior lows remaining intact.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gaping up Tuesday and extending higher intraday to 166-23 was retraced back down to the 165-30 bounce limit, further suggesting the gap back down to 165-02 needs to be filled before a rally can begin.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Coverage rolls forward to Nov which trades at a 75-80 cent premium to Oct] Could the pattern have bottomed? Last week’s failed Pivot Reversal tried, but resolved down. Now Tuesday’s Key Reversal is leaving no structural “unfinished business below” — gapping down within the range and recovering from a fresh low to close positive. Only measurable attractions remain outstanding, like 43.00 and 42.30. Closing above the Pivot Reversal’s 45.00 intraday high would be credible for reversing the trend back up.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to fresh highs Tuesday and extending higher through the morning is essentially already fulfilling the 3.04 target. Higher targets will be in-play, especially upon confirming with a second consecutive higher close on Wednesday.