Bigger Picture
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/30/16) …
When is a new trend high close not a new trend high close? Friday. At least, this particular Friday. Since a new trend high close would have entrenched the rally, and the opportunity was plentiful, not producing a new trend high close has predictive value, too. Especially since it happened in the pivotal 2168-2169 area. It’s not a sell signal, but it does suggest a couple of likely near-term paths.
We discuss all of that, and more, in this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
MSFT, RTEC, POT, DRI, IONS, XON, AMZN, EQIX, KMI, SBUX, GDX, NUGT, DUST,
07/30/2016 09:29:44 Casjf: gm
07/30/2016 09:31:31 Mark Glezer: gm
07/30/2016 09:58:27 MK: To the moon!
07/30/2016 09:58:29 Casjf: MSFT, RTEC, IONS, XON,KMI
07/30/2016 09:58:44 MK: POT
07/30/2016 10:00:58 MK: DRU
07/30/2016 10:01:01 MK: sorry
07/30/2016 10:01:02 MK: DRI
07/30/2016 10:01:19 MK: AMZN
07/30/2016 10:02:12 MK: EQIX
07/30/2016 10:02:19 MK: SBUX
07/30/2016 10:06:20 MK: PSA
07/30/2016 10:10:48 MK: ok
07/30/2016 10:11:54 MK: DRI is a short
07/30/2016 10:25:22 Mark Glezer: missed the beginning, will watch reconding. Do you expect a break either way from the narrow range to happen early next week ?
07/30/2016 10:27:30 MK: yes
07/30/2016 10:28:33 Mark Glezer: also, is a higher likelihood of breaking lower since there is no momentum to go higher or breaking higher due to pessimism near the high?
07/30/2016 10:29:59 Mark Glezer: k
07/30/2016 10:36:03 MK: random aside but the sentiment index that FXCM releases shows that 89% of their traders are net short SPX
07/30/2016 10:37:47 MK: ok
07/30/2016 10:37:54 MK: i was thinking about gettin short here
07/30/2016 10:43:40 MK: correct
07/30/2016 10:44:19 Josey: Ty
07/30/2016 10:44:21 Mark Glezer: thx much
07/30/2016 10:44:30 Casjf: good weekend all
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s second consecutive higher close above recent prior highs has already produced its required third higher close with Friday’s gap up that extended higher through the morning to 1.1219. Back under 1.1150 would signal the rally had ended.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday trended up from the open, retracing Thursday’s post-open session-long retracement from 1344.00, and extending to test 1351.50. This fulfills the minimum requirement for at least a third higher close after Tuesday’s confirmed breakout. Pullbacks holding 1342.50 allow the rally to extend to 1365.00 and potentially also to 1386.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s post-open session-long retracement wasn’t rejected Friday as price action only fluctuated choppily in positive territory. This didn’t qualify for fulfilling the minimum requirement of at least a third higher close, let alone the retest of Brexit’s 21.15 reaction peak.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having produced the required third higher close Thursday from Tuesday’s confirmed breakout at 171-22, closing above 173-04‘s buy signal needed confirmation Friday from its own second consecutive higher close — which was likely for having probed 1 point above it into the afternoon.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight tested 40.55 before bouncing Friday to test 41.65 as resistance, still having room up to 42.25-42.50 for maintaining this leg’s 36.60 objective.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s strong reaction to its EIA report was extended only slightly higher Friday to test 2.92, but still closed positive to confirm that at least a third eventual higher close is now required. The gap back up to the 2.98 high close is an attraction, but its test is likely to be exceeded..
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is busier than usual. More so, one or two of its reports are reliable for influencing price action — especially the ISM number.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s FOMC news came after intraday weakness had filled the gap back down to Friday’s 1.0985 close. Its reaction spiked up above multi-session highs, and gapped up Thursday to test the most recent trendline break at 1.1130. Extending above 1.1145 would signal a bigger rally underway, but back under 1.1045 would signal the corrective bounce had ended already.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting favorably to Wednesday’s FOMC news had already extended well above the 1325.00 and 1329.50 buy signals. Firming further overnight probed higher Thursday to 1344.50. Its post-open reaction trended back down to attack the 1329.50 pullback limit, but any second consecutive higher close confirms the the recovery’s momentum remains intact.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already reacting favorably to Wednesday’s FOMC news, higher highs overnight further extended the break above the 19.75-19.85 buy signal to pierce the 20.55 2-week old high. Post-open action trended back down, needing only a second consecutive higher close to confirm the breakout’s momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s second consecutive close above the 171-22 buy signal extended higher overnight to test the next pattern’s 173-04 signal whose recovery confirms 176-10 is in-play.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending down to fresh lows Thursday helps to confirm the pattern’s next objective of 36.60 is in-play Bounces should now hold 42.25-42.50..
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although not greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength, at least all available selling pressure had been expended down to 2.65 without gaining any traction for the effort, i.e. breakout. The report’s reaction was immediate, surging to test 2.80-2.85 whose recovery through the close signals a new rally leg underway.