Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday to test Tuesday’s gap probably only delays the inevitable retest of recent lows, since Tuesday’s reaction down had stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up didn’t immediately recover the 1329.60 that would have served by proxy to invalidate Tuesday’s close under the 1322.40. pullback limit. But it doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway to retest last Thursday’s 1363.00 overnight spike high.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up  Wednesday’s open easily retested Thursday night’s spike high, presumably still targeting 18.80 so long as 18.00 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already having fulfilled the requirement to retest last Thursday nights 173-25 high Tuesday, it’s interesting that overnight action only ranged narrowly while stocks rallied sharply. The excuse for a pullback was ignored, as it was Wednesday while stocks rallied even more sharply. The 174-26 target remains intact.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s late surge extended higher overnight, and then also intraday Wednesday into and out of a bullish EIA report. Closing back under 48.35 would signal the upside momentum was lapsing, which might allow raising the sell signal.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday was reversed back into the rally’s 2.86-2.91 target area that had been fulfilled Tuesday. This rally leg has extended considerably without only shallow pullbacks, so Wednesday’s key-reversal is more vulnerable to reversing down. But Wednesday’s gap up above all prior highs will want to be filled.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday was immediately reversed, albeit only to attack or to fill the gap back down to Monday’s close, and not yet to trend to fresh lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness had initially held a test of the 1322.00 pullback limit, but a rally leg never gained traction so Tuesday afternoon action dipped a little deeper to test 1311.00. Immediately recovering 1329.50 would resume the rally back to Thursday night’s 1362.60 high.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Attacking 17.60 overnight held and reacted up to try resuming the rally. A slightly deeper test reacted up intraday to test 17.84 resistance.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight highs touched Thursday night’s 173-25 prior high that had required a retest, which is still likely to include a visit to 174-24, now so long as 172-14 holds as support.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing overnight to 47.80 held resistance at Wednesday’s “higher prior lows” before reversing back down to test a new sell signal at 46.75.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday tried to produce the new high close that had become required by last week’s confirmed breakout, while probing the next higher resistance area at 2.86-2.91. The vulnerability to reacting down is based on there now being no unfinished business above outstanding, and only a shallow base with no pullback having launched the current leg.