Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
With no unfinished business above as of Thursday’s close, Brexit’s reaction wasn’t defended as price plummeted to a fresh low at 1.0974. it was recovered to probe above 1.1200 intraday, but any immediate recovery would not be credible.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1274.00 buy signal was very productive after Thursday’s close, triggering a retest of the prior week’s highs up to 1362.80 as the pattern had required. Retesting the overnight high requires pullbacks to hold 1308.60-1312.00 as support .
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking up to 18.37 in reaction to Brexit was retraced back down to 17.58, and the high’s retest depends on pullbacks now holding 17.75 as support.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Finally probing the 165-16/165-30 pullback objective overnight allowed a steep reaction to Brexit. The 171-22 target was probed by more than 2 points, but only 171-09 was touched post-open. Resting the overnight high requires pullbacks to hold tests of 169-28.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending down sharply overnight broke under the 48.25 sell signal to 46.70 had reacted up to 48.40, leaving the sell signal break intact and targeting 45.00-45.40.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s shallow dip in reaction to EIA wasn’t retested Friday after Brexit. But it was attacked without reacting up, so an eventual higher close can’t yet be dismissed before a deeper pullback
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 27, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: At least one high-profile econ report Monday starts the week after a tumultuous end to the prior week. Nothing on Monday’s calendar should be an obstacle to trending.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Oh, snap… (The rally’s back just made that sound.)
[SCROLL DOWN FOR CHART] Thursday’s late surge wasted no time extending higher after the ~2106.00 cash session close. Already extending up to 2113.25 before the Globex open, and then just as quickly extending again to 2119.50.
Then Brexit/Bremain results began arriving. Surprise. A narrow win for Remain that should have been wide, a win for Brexit that was wider than anticipated, and so on.
The first drop found support at 2104.50, which was Thursday’s opening print. The next plunge consolidated off of Thursday morning’s 2089.75 low. Yet another plunge touched 2050.00.
That last plunge fulfilled “unfinished business below” at 2073.75 and 2070.75. Its bounce was the biggest of all, 40 points back up to 2089.75.
That biggest bounce’s failure was the biggest of all, too.It was retraced entirely, from 2090.00 to 2023/25.
Bouncing again from here would likely test 2050.50-2055.50. Much higher for much longer would then have potential back up to 2090.00. No bounce to 2050.50 is at all required — but extending down without first bouncing would set a very bearish tone into Europe’s opens.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending up sharply overnight opened Thursday above two-week old highs, despite Sunday night’s high already filling its gap. Reacting back down to “lower prior highs” now allows a top to form after filling the gap back up to Thursday’s opening open 1.4315, or to extend higher without leaving outstanding any unfinished business below.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s close wasn’t already recovering above Monday’s 1278.00 high, and Thursday’s open wasn’t gapping up above 1281.00 by proxy, so fresh lows were probed through Thursday morning. Having touched 1260.00, closing above 1272.50 would start to signal the drop was ending.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still didn’t probe the lower-end of its range Thursday, but neither did it recovery, still suggesting the Gold pullback isn’t going to gain traction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s close wasn’t already recovering above Monday’s 168-12 high, and Thursday’s open wasn’t gapping up by proxy above 169-00, so fresh lows were probed through Thursday morning attacking 166-00. A recovery attempt at this stage wouldn’t be credible before probing into the 165-16/165-30 range.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s test of the 48.75 sell signal had recovered to close at or above 49.00. Gapping up Thursday was held by resistance at 50.00 in positive territory without trending up, so the sell signal remains alive.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down after EIA was much shallower than the room allowed, only testing “lower prior highs” of the recent narrow consolidation at 2.61 before bouncing back into positive territory above Wednesday’s 2.68 close. Closing under 2.60 would still target 2.47-2.51.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 24, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s econ reports are all reliably influential to price action. More so, a reaction to the pre-open Durable Goods report would be likely to repeat in reaction to the post-open Consumer Sentiment.
Robert Kaplan Speaks
THU 6:30 PM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET