Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce extended overnight just enough to actually test Wednesday’s 1.1305 close, whose gap wasn’t quite filled. There not being an immediate reaction keeps the door open to a bigger bounce is underway, targeting the prior week’s high close at 1.1400
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s post-close drop had extended down overnight to test “lower prior highs” and 1281.00 pullback limit. The gap back up to Thursday’s 1308.50 open and the rally’s 1312.00 target should be retested.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down and sliding Friday post-open is nevertheless likely to retest Thursday’s 17.80 gap up before a durable top can form.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the pullback Friday morning tested the pullback limit at 169-00. Back above 170-16 would target 171-22.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and firming Friday was not surprising since Thursday had fulfilled the minimum pullback objective at 47.25. Bounces holding “higher prior lows” around 48.00 maintain the 45.00-45.40 lower objective.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still no trending attempts, breakouts or pullbacks that suggest the pattern would reverse down sharply if trying to rally beyond its 2.70-2.75 target.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 20, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is otherwise uneventful. But the usual noon hour illiquidity may be shaken by a Fed speaker.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
12:15 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down again Thursday was not necessarily more counter-trend action, since Wednesday’s low had stopped optimistically short of actually filling the gap back to Monday’s close, and then filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s close had neutralized its attraction above. Bouncing intraday offers one more opportunity to bottom, by recovering from a retest of Thursday’s gap down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close reaction to FOMC extended sharply higher overnight to probe the 1312.00 target to attack 1317.00. Its reaction recovered to fresh post-open highs attacking 1319.00. The next reaction down slid to 1293.00, and then lower to 1285.00 after the close. Thursday’s gap up to 1308.60 will need to be retested.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already meeting the 17.60 target before Wednesday’s close, extending higher overnight created more room for a pullback without beginning to signal momentum reversing down. But 17.60 was probed back down to 17.40.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Surging at Thursday’s open extended easily through the 170-16 resistance but stopped short of touching the 171-22 target before reversing back down intraday under 170-16.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending down overnight easily fulfilled the decline’s minimum objective at 47.25 before extending to test 46.15, likely on the way to test “lower prior highs” at 45.40..
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was muted, as a lot of buying pressure continues being expended simply to hover at the highs. Extending higher to the 2.70-2.75 target is likely to hold and to reverse down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 17, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Neither of Friday’s two econ reports are reliable for influencing price action, although surprises are easier without other context. Meanwhile, so-called Quadruple Witch expiration will be much more influential.
*Quadruple Witching
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday was appropriate for helping to confirm that Tuesday’s gap down had only neutralized the attraction below without breaking lower. The FOMC reaction extended higher and filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. Retesting last week’s 1.1400 high remains in-play.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday didn’t reject Monday’s surge, so with or without a pullback that would be likely to recover, the 1312.00 target above remains intact. Spiking up post-close in reaction to FOMC already tested 1300.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming to a fresh relative high Wednesday morning continued the attack on the outstanding target above at 17.60. But it was fulfill in reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC news.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness tested the 168-20 pullback limit to enable Wednesday morning’s post-open rally. Recovering to within 3 ticks of Tuesday’s 167-27 high suggests the rally is resuming.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down even deeper after Tuesday’s API report, and then reacting up on Wednesday’s EIA, has not undermined the distributive pattern unfolding that should soon now be entering its capitulative stage.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still not falling any deeper than Tuesday’s pre-open dip is starting to suggest that the 2.70-2.75 target will be met first. Meeting it without first correcting would make the target’s test likely to react down.