Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight gapped up Friday t 1.1390 and immediately retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s collapse to begin suggesting that was only an ECB related anomaly. Extending higher through Wednesday’s attack on 1.1450 all but confirms momentum has reversed up.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Consolidating between 1277.50-1283.00 finally resolved Friday morning, surging to probe prior highs at 1300.00, and presumably reinstating upside momentum next targeting 1319.50 so long as 1292.00 now holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The consolidation under 15.40 finally resolved up Friday morning, at least producing its most aggressive attempt, by returning into the previous channel up to 15.70. Further recovery potential requires holding 15.60 as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up had firmed slightly through the close, but was still likely to back-and-fill before resuming the rally. An overnight dip gapped down to recent “lower prior highs” at 145-08 and tested 144-30 intraday. Any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher, but back under 144-24 would launch a new downleg.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength to 54.20 essentially filled the gap back last Friday’s false breakout before reversing to greet Friday’s open unchanged. Intraday action trended back up to attack the overnight high. Any initial strength Monday would be likely to extend higher intraday.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s rally from its maximum corrective pullback limit was initially extended higher overnight to test 3.20. Opening Friday back under Thursday’s highs dipped to 3.05 support before rallying to attack 3.20 into the weekend, all in-line with forming a bottom.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s early break above downtrending resistance was likely to extend higher intraday. A second consecutive higher close on Thursday would have reversed the trend up, but its early strength was blind-sided by Draghi’s comments after the ECB policy statement. Now a close above 1.1400 would trigger a trend reversal.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping back down Thursday to 1277.50 reacted up to 1283.00, both inflection points holding their tests instead of either one breaking to trigger new trending.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s recovery back up to 15.40 again still wasn’t exploited Thursday as the session hovered under it, and just above 15.22 support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having filled the gap back down to Friday’s 144-18 close and neutralizing its attraction at Wednesday’s open, Thursday’s gap up above 145-08 was finally able to avoid rejection. A quick dip to 145-08 before extending higher into the weekend would be the optimal bullish pattern to reverse the trend up.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s session was once again defined by the 52.33-53.40 range, even through the morning’s delayed weekly EIA report. The gap outstanding above is likely to be filled, which would be bullish before the weekend if exceeded.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s test of 3.05 “lower prior highs” and Thursday’s 61.8% retracement of the prior low’s range at 2.95 had no excuse to delay forming a bottom, other than Thursday’s EIA report. There was no pessimistic knee-jerk reaction, and the session ended higher. An intraday dip should recover to close higher if a bottom has formed.