Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday extended the rally to fresh highs, while retesting the prior rally’s highs. Now pullbacks must hold 1.1255 to maintain momentum, and should hold it, since the prior pivotal high has been touched which all but requires fresh highs.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close surge extended higher overnight into Thursday’s test of 1272.00 so that pullback limits could be raised Thursday morning to 1260.70, for maintaining upside potential to retest 1288.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight to test 15.70 Thursday now puts the pattern at a crossroads of either launching a new upleg or else dipping back down to 15.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s eerie narrow ranging amid so much volatility was resolved by rallying overnight to gap up Thursday at or above the 162-07 buy signal, which still must be recovered through the close to trigger. Still hovering there through much of the day keeps teh door open to another drop targeting fresh lows at 160-28.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday night’s highs fulfilled expectations to retest the 39.00 high, but gapping up has created potential for that test to visit 40.40. It’s being attacked already, but there’s no room or time for a pullback if the upside remains intact.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that at least assisted in absorbing the reaction down. Gapping up and reversing down was, in fact, absorbed. And it was resolved to probing fresh highs attacking 1.90.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing 1.1105 into Wednesday’s FOMC statement launched a surge to fresh highs above 1.2230 attacking 1.2275. Even the most bearish pattern is unlikely to reverse down immediately, but back under 1.1170 would start forming a Double Top.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite only hovering optimistically above Sunday night’s 1226.00 low, the reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement surged sharply through the 1243.00 bounce limit to test 1260.70 resistance by $2. All of which developed post-close, but a retest of 1288.00 is likely so long as 1250.20 holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding the 15.25 pullback limit enabled a favorable reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement. Attacking 15.70 after the close now needs to recover 15.70 through Thursday’s close to even suggest a bigger rally underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reaction to the FOMC statement was surprisingly muted, as price ranged narrowly around the gap back to Friday’s 161-16 close that was filled already Tuesday.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s tepid break under the 36.95 sell signal was recovered Wednesday to confirm that a retest of the 39.00 high remains likelier to form a more substantial top, although resistance is already in-play upon filling the gap back to Friday’s 38.60 close.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat, narrow ranging Wednesday is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, having rallied with restrained optimism and still targeting 1.99.