Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1105 pullback target was tested already overnight before Friday’s gap down. The pullback target held, making at least the gap back up to Thursday’s close likely to be filled before a durable reversal can begin.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight blip-up came within 20 cents of touching the 1277.50-1288.00 target area’s upper-end. The reaction down greeted Friday’s open in negative territory. While the overnight test does neutralize the attraction, it is vulnerable to being retested intraday so long as the new 1260.70 pullback limit holds, and otherwise ready to begin a deeper pullback.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging momentarily overnight held a retest of the 15.70 target before gappnig down at Friday’s open was unable to recover positive territory, and back under 15.25 would reverw he trend down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s recovery back above 162-07 improved Friday morning to a couple of ticks short of the 162-29 buy signal before reversing down sharply to fresh lows. Recovering from a test of 160-28 would be credible for forming a durable bottom.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The Ascending Triangle probed fresh highs above 39.00 Friday, largely recovering from a dip to 38.10. The pullback limit has been raised to 37.85.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Hesitating to test the 1.80 confirmation Thursday resolved up immediately Friday to test 1.86. Friday’s close confirms momentum has reversed up, next targeting 1.99.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s head & shoulders resolved down overnight by sliding sharply into and out Thursday’s ECB policy statement. Probing a new low under 1.0825 didn’t prevent recovering entirely up to 1.1000 and reversing well into positive territory attacking 1.1220. Extending further Friday is unlikely before testing 1.1105 as support.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1252.00 pullback limit’s retest didn’t undermine the likely retest of the 1277.50-1288.00 target area, which resumed Thursday morning after the ECB reaction. Already testing 1274.00, the target area’s upper-end should be attacked next.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing Thursday morning extended to attack 15.70, and now a deeper downleg would be triggered under 15.45.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s volatility tried rallying, twice testing 163-26, but soon reversed down into negative territory under 162-27 to probe a fresh low at 161-19. Closing back above 162-07 would signal that sellers were absorbed, and back above 162-20 would again trigger a buy signal.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down Thursday morning to new held a test of the 37.50 pullback limit before recovering back to the 38.15 area prior highs. Having formed an Ascending Triangle, at least a brief probe of fresh highs is likely.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength above 1.70 and under 1.80 didn’t extend the recovery but it did help to absorb any shock from the news so that probing 1.80 Friday would be likely to trend higher intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down again Wednesday still wasn’t the optimal start to resuming the decline. Tt would have been credible, but filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close was optimal. The morning’s bounce into positive territory did that, while forming a Head & Shoulder. A new downleg should be obvious with little delay to avoid a bigger rally will have begun.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Consolidating at or under the lower-end of the 1277.50-1288.00 target area established a base to launch at least a brief probe further into the range. Suddenly gapping down Wednesday doesn’t prevent that more thorough test, but closing under 1250.00 would make that more difficult.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s dip extended Wednesday, testing support at 15.25 that must hold to keep alive at least an attack on Friday’s high.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s post-open rally up to 164-27 had avoided backing-and-filling its gap up, and Tuesday night’s drop fulfilled the requirement testing the 162-20 buy signal as support. Slightly “lower prior highs” allow a little deeper, but there is otherwise no lower requirement or reason to delay rallying again.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
After Tuesday’s drop held an overnight test of the 36.30 pullback limit, Wednesday’s bounce retested prior highs, allowing the pullback limit being raised to 36.90, and the sell signal raised to 35.45.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Improving Wednesday to attack 1.80 and closing decisively above 1.70 suggests that Thursday’s EIA report will be greeted from a position of strength.