Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday continued extending higher, probing the 1.1280 “higher prior low” to test the Falling Wedge’s downtrending resistance at 1.1300 up to 1.1310. Backing-and-filling would be normal in the process of forming a more durable bottom. The FOMC reaction started the process, collapsing back down to the Wedge’s 1.1240 lower-end.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday between Monday’s close and Tuesday’s gap up remained within Tuesday’s range throughout Wednesday. Spiking up after the close in reaction to the FOMC policy statement attacked the week’s highs up to 1289.00. Reaction to the Fed Chair’s Q&A collapsed back down to and through session lows to test 1280.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday gapped back down to and through Tuesday’s 14.83 low, extending to fresh lows at 14.70, before the FOMC policy statement reaction bounced back up to 13.82. That was still under the morning’s lows and Tuesday’s low. Reaction to Powell’s Q&A fell back to 14.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
“Higher prior lows” at 147-22 and the 147-24 gap fill that were tested Friday were retested at Wednesday’s open and probed up to 148-11 ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. Holding up through the Policy Statement was retraced during the Q&A, allowing the sell signal to be raised to 147-04.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s reaction down from its open’s premature test of the 64.35 buy signal was extended down Wednesday to 62.75, allowing the buy signal to be lowered to 63.75,which was attacked into Wednesday’s close.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-lower overnight ranging was recovered in time to gap up Wednesday to and then through Friday and Tuesday’s 2.60-2.61 highs, extending a couple of cents higher to greet Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Calculable resistance and the previous downtrending support (now resistance) of the massive Falling Wedge coincided at 1.1235. Both were probed Tuesday morning, as 1.1280 “higher prior lows” were attacked up to 1.1275. Closing above 1.1235 would create a position of strength to enable backing-and-filling to help form a bottom, so long as the lows are not retested.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength continued the pattern — or, lack thereof — for stringing together two consecutive similar sessions that would signal trending. Gapping up was retraced immediately to fill the gap back down to Monday’s close, which held as price fluctuated sideways in positive territory. A second consecutive higher close is still needed to signal Monday’s break did not gain traction.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite bouncing overnight from Monday’s drop, Tuesday’s choppy open dipped to 14.85. And despite the dip, positive territory was recovered up to 15.00. All of which helps to suggest Monday’s drop won’t extend, but a higher close is still needed.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing under 147-04 and testing 146-30 Monday extended down only to 146-24 before bouncing up to 147-18. Wednesday’s FOMC isn’t being greeted from a position of strength or weakness.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing the 64.35 buy signal before Tuesday’s open was suspicious, and its resistance did launch a reaction down that filled the gap back to Monday’s close down to 63.30. The buy signal is free to trigger cleanly, but post-close API and Wednesday morning’s EIA are not being greeted from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s intraday recovery firmed a little further overnight to pierce Friday’s 2.60 high by a penny, but Tuesday’s open slid to test 2.57. No buy signal is being confirmed, but the restrained optimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Lackluster Sunday night and Monday morning eventually firmed to probe above Friday’s highs to attack 1.1235, which must be recovered before confirming the decline’s momentum has lapsed and the trend may be reversing up.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Blipping-up from Monday’s gap down didn’t prevent resuming Sunday night’s slide from Friday’s 1288.50 close. Monday morning’s test and retest of 1280.00 held above the 1277.50 buy signal that had triggered last week, but rallying into Tuesday’s close is the minimum bullish requirement.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward from to Jul which trades at a 7-cent premium to May]… Overnight weakness attacking the 14.95 buy signal (basis Jul, 14.88 basis May) collapsed through the open to attack 14.90. While the gap now outstanding from Friday’s 15.09 close doesn’t require being filled, it is still a near-term attraction so long as any lower low intraday Tuesday is recovered to close positive.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the bounce Friday to test “higher prior lows” and to fill an outstanding gap allowed raising the sell signal to 147-04 with a close under 146-30 being a confirmation. Both were tested Monday, and extending any lower would signal the 145-24 target remains in-play.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s 62.28 low was attacked to within 20 cents Sunday night but not so much Monday morning. No second consecutive lower close avoids confirming the trend has reversed down, and keeps alive the likelihood for fresh highs targeting 67.00 which would be triggered back above 64.35.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s 2.61 close had triggered the 2.54 buy signal, which was attacked as support Monday down to 2.55. Almost all of which was recovered throughout the afternoon. A second consecutive higher close would have confirmed the recovery already underway, but closing above 2.61 Tuesday would be almost as reliably bullish.